Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Free Pick 07/11/18

The Philadelphia Phillies will be squaring off against their division rival New York Mets at Citi Field. The matchup will begin at 7:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to SportsNet New York to catch the action.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Odds

Oddsmakers have listed New York (-155) as the favorite over Philadelphia (+145). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at -110 for over 7 runs and -110 for under 7. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds sitting at -150 for the Phillies +1.5 runs and +130 for the Mets -1.5 runs.

The Phillies are 51-39 SU and have gone 40-49 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 11.8 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having lost 16.8 units ATS. Philadelphia’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in six of those seven. The Mets, on the other hand, are 36-53 SU and 36-51 ATS. The team has lost 18.6 units for moneyline bettors and 22.1 units ATS. New York has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Mets games have a 36-47-4 over/under record so far in 2018. The Phillies have also been a decent under bet with a total record of 38-47-4.

Vince Velasquez is getting the start for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Velasquez is 5-8 with a 4.69 ERA and 107 strikeouts. He has yet to face New York this year, but he did make three starts against the team in 2017, compiling a 0-2 record with an 8.25 ERA and 10 strikeouts.

The Mets are putting the ball in the hands of righty Jacob deGrom (5-4, 1.79 ERA), who has 142 strikeouts and 29 walks, as well as a WHIP of 0.99. deGrom is 0-0 with two strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA in one start against Philadelphia this year.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.2 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.76 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 9.11 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.00, along with a WHIP of 1.22.

Phillies hitters have slashed .236/.323/.394 on their way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Philadelphia’s hitters have been paced by outfielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez, who have combined to drive in 80 runs. Herrera is hitting .278/.332/.470 with 16 home runs, 52 RBIs and 46 runs scored, while Hernandez (.262/.372/.374) is up to eight homers, 28 RBIs, 62 runs and 14 stolen bases.

For the home team, New York’s pitchers have given up 4.7 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have a 4.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.71 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 8.7 K/9. In 34 games against divisional opponents, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.79 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.32.

New York’s offense is putting up 3.9 runs per outing, including 3.6 per game against divisional foes and 1.6 per game over its last five. The team has hit .166/.222/.278 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that span.

The Mets’ batters have been led by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and shortstop Amed Rosario. Cabrera is slashing .280/.326/.485 with 16 home runs, 51 RBIs and 40 runs scored, while Rosario’s line is .242/.286/.368 with four homers, 22 RBIs and 31 runs.

The Phillies have gained 10.7 units and are 31-37 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 28 of those games, compared to 37 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 11.9 units and are 25-38 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 26 of those games, compared to 33 that went under the total.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

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Betting Trends

The under has hit in five of New York’s last seven games.

The Mets have lost four of their last five games SU.

New York has posted 15.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 11.6 over its last five.

The Phillies have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit 10 over their last 10.


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