The Denver Nuggets (19-17) take on the Phoenix Suns (15-24) at Pepsi Center. The game can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 3, 2018.
Denver is an 11-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 218 points.
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
The Suns come in on a high note after just getting past the Atlanta Hawks in their last game, 104-103. The Suns had a superb effective field goal percentage of 0.552 (above their season average of 0.494) and had a free throw rate of 0.247 (above their season average of 0.226). With 34 points on 9-for-17 shooting, Devin Booker was the top scorer from either team.
In the Nuggets’ last matchup, they were beaten by the Philadelphia 76ers, 107-102. Philadelphia’s 0.527 effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Denver, who had a mark of 0.443. The 76ers’ mark was above their season average of 0.519, while the Nuggets’ was below their season average of 0.528. With 19 points, 13 rebounds and six assists, Nikola Jokic put together a solid game for Denver.
Denver could dominate the offensive glass in this showdown. The Nuggets are among the league’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking second in offensive rebounding percentage at 27.2 percent. Meanwhile, Phoenix ranks 27th in the NBA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 76.0 percent. Moreover, the Suns are among the league’s best at getting to the line, ranking fourth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.227). The Nuggets, meanwhile, rank fourth at keeping opponents off the charity stripe with an opponents’ FTA rate of 0.167.
Phoenix heads into the game with records of 15-24 straight up (SU) and 19-18-1 against the spread (ATS). Of the Suns’ 38 games with betting action, 17 have finished under, 20 have finished over and one has pushed.
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 19-17 SU and 17-18-1 ATS. Of the Nuggets’ 36 games, 20 have finished under the projected point total.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. T.J. Warren (24.4 points and 5.4 rebounds) has been fantastic for the Suns while Trey Lyles (15.8 points and 6.8 rebounds) has made solid contributions to the Nuggets.
After the Nuggets won all four games against the Suns last season, these teams will battle for the first time this year. In the most recent contest, Denver won 123-112. Denver did a terrific job of getting to and converting from the charity stripe (37-42; 88.1 percent). Phoenix, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (8.7 vs. 12.4).
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Suns, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Phoenix is 11-6-1 ATS on the road with 10 overs and 8 unders.
At home, Denver is 9-7 ATS with 9 unders and 7 overs.
In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Phoenix is 5-2 and Denver is 10-2.
The Nuggets are 16-11 when they reach 100 points, while the Suns are 11-15.
Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (15.4) while Phoenix ranks 28th in second chance points allowed per game (14.2).
The Nuggets average 48.8 points in the paint per game, which ranks third in the league. The Suns rank 27th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.2).
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (40.9) while Phoenix ranks 25th (45.2).
The Nuggets rank seventh in assists per game (23.3) while the Suns rank 29th (20.5).
Denver ranks fifth in fast break points per game (14.2) while Phoenix ranks 25th in fast break points allowed per game (13.7).
The Nuggets rank 14th in steals per game (7.7) while the Suns rank 27th (6.6).
Denver ranks 14th in points off turnovers per game (16.8) while Phoenix ranks 25th (15.2).
The Nuggets average 4.6 blocks per game, which ranks 20th in the NBA. The Suns rank 23rd in blocks allowed per game (5.3).
Denver ranks eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.5) while Phoenix ranks 11th in three pointers allowed per game (27.4).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Phoenix is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Denver is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.8, down from 6.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 106.4 points per game (0.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 96.8 points per game (9.0 below their season average).
