The Memphis Grizzlies (2-2) take on the Phoenix Suns (1-3) at FedExForum. The game can be seen on Fox Sports – Southeast at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 27, 2018.
Phoenix Suns vs. Memphis Grizzlies ATS Prediction
In the Suns’ last matchup, they were dismantled by the Los Angeles Lakers, 131-113, and were unable to cover as 5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (244) came in over the projected point total of 238.5. Los Angeles’ 6.8 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Phoenix, who had a rate of 16.9. The Lakers’ mark was better than their season average of 10.7, while the Suns’ was above the 10.9 mark opponents have averaged against Los Angeles this season. Deandre Ayton had a good outing for Phoenix, recording 22 points and 11 rebounds.
The Grizzlies fell to the Sacramento Kings in their last outing, 97-92, despite being 3-point favorites. The game’s combined points (189) were well under the projected point total of 220.5. Getting to the free throw line was one of Sacramento’s biggest strengths. They made 33 trips to the line, while Memphis went just 13 times. With 27 points on 10-for-22 shooting, Mike Conley was the game’s leading scorer.
The aggressive Memphis offense might be living from the foul line in this matchup. Since last season, the Grizzlies rank ninth in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.203, while Phoenix ranks 25th in FTA rate allowed (0.212). It will also be a matchup of conflicting paces as the fast-paced Suns rank third in possessions per game, while the more methodical Grizzlies rank 29th.
Since last season, the Suns are 22-64 straight up (SU) and 41-43-2 against the spread (ATS). Phoenix games have had a tendency to finish over the projected point total since last season (58.1 percent).
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies, are 24-62 SU and 45-47 ATS since last season. Vegas has also been highly precise when setting the O/U total of Memphis games over that same time frame with an even split between overs and unders.
The Suns won three out of four games against the Grizzlies last season. In the most recent game, Phoenix won 110-102. The Suns knocked down 28 of their 38 free throws (73.7 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (13.8 vs. 16.8).
Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies Betting Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Suns, ATS Winner – Suns, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Phoenix is 8-2 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Memphis is 14-13.
The Grizzlies are 18-23 when they score more than 100 points, while the Suns are 17-38.
Memphis ranks seventh in points off turnovers per game (17.1) while Phoenix ranks last in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.8).
The Grizzlies rank fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (42.5) while the Suns rank 26th (47.6).
Phoenix ranks 11th in rebounds per game (44.1) while Memphis ranks last (40.5).
The Suns average 14.2 fast break points per game, which ranks seventh in the league. The Grizzlies rank 25th in fast break points allowed per game (14.5).
Memphis ranks 15th in steals per game (7.6) while Phoenix ranks last in steals allowed per game (8.8).
The Grizzlies rank 16th in blocks per game (4.8) while the Suns rank 29th in blocks allowed per game (5.9).
Memphis ranks 20th in second chance points per game (11.7) while Phoenix ranks 23rd in second chance points allowed per game (13.2).
The Grizzlies are 26th in the league with 21.5 assists per game while the Suns are 27th with 21.5 assists per game.
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