Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
Pittsburgh (+120) is entering this one as the underdog against Cincinnati (-130) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 8.5 runs (-125 for the over and +105 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds sitting at -175 for the Pirates +1.5 runs and +155 for the Reds -1.5.
The Pirates are 27-21 SU and are 22-25 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 2.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline, despite having lost 1.6 units ATS. Pittsburgh has covered the spread only once over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, are 17-33 SU and 26-23 ATS. The team’s lost 11.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 3.5 units ATS. Cincinnati has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven outings and the under has hit in three of those seven.
Cincinnati games have a 21-26-2 over/under record so far in 2018. Pittsburgh has been a decent over bet with a total record of 24-18-5.
Ivan Nova is getting the nod for Pittsburgh. The right-handed Nova is 2-4 with a 4.79 ERA and 43 strikeouts. This will be his first outing against Cincinnati this year. He did make four starts against the team in 2017, posting a 0-4 record with a 5.40 ERA and 18 strikeouts.
The Reds are putting the ball in the hands of righty Luis Castillo (3-4, 5.61 ERA), who has 50 strikeouts and 20 walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 1.50. Castillo is 0-1 with three strikeouts and a 7.20 ERA across one starts against Pittsburgh this year.
As a unit, Cincinnati’s pitchers have yielded 5.1 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starting pitching staff has a 5.54 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. In 24 games against divisional opponents, Reds starters have an ERA of 6.15 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.26.
The Cincinnati hitters have produced 4.0 runs per contest, including 2.9 per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over their last five. The team has hit .199/.297/.281 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza have led the Reds’ batters so far. Gennett is slashing .328/.368/.544 with nine home runs, 34 RBIs and 25 runs scored, while Peraza’s line is .251/.285/.328 with 49 hits, 11 RBIs, 27 runs and eight stolen bases.
For the visiting squad, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 4.22 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 7.42 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.94, along with a WHIP of 1.23.
The Pirates offense has slashed .259/.336/.427 on its way to 4.8 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).
Pittsburgh’s hitters have been led by outfielders Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte. Dickerson is slashing .316/.356/.500 with five home runs, 30 RBIs and 22 runs scored, while Marte is hitting .308/.366/.503 with six homers, 19 RBIs, 30 runs and 10 stolen bases.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .275/.333/.379, Marte appeared to take a step back when hitting right-handed pitchers on the road last year, putting up a slash line of .250/.289/.317 over 128 such plate appearances.
The Pirates have gained 1.6 units and are 18-19 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 16 of those games, compared to 16 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 7.8 units and are 19-16 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 14 of those games, compared to 20 that went under the total.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER
Cincinnati has posted 18.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 17.0 over its last five.
The Pirates have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.
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