Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Pick 07/21/18

The Pittsburgh Pirates are ready to take on their divisional rival Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and the matchup will be televised on either ATPT or FSOH.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds

Vegas is listing Cincinnati (-115) as the favorite over Pittsburgh (+105). Bettors can gamble on the game’s total with odds sitting at -105 for over 9.5 runs and -115 for under 9.5. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at -200 for the Pirates +1.5 runs and +170 for the Reds -1.5.

The Reds are 58-38 against the spread (ATS), but just 43-54 straight up (SU). The team’s lost 1.0 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 9.2 units (ATS). Cincinnati has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total went over in all seven of them. The Pirates are 49-49 SU and have gone 46-51 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 3.6 units for moneyline bettors and 7.0 units ATS. Pittsburgh has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.

Cincinnati games have had an over/under record of 51-41-4 so far in 2018. Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 46-44-7.

Nick Kingham will get the start for the visiting Pirates. The right-handed Kingham is 4-4 with a 4.26 ERA and 51 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Reds this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Reds are sending righty Anthony DeSclafani (4-2, 5.32 ERA) to the mound. DeSclafani has 35 strikeouts and 13 walks to his name, as well as a 1.27 WHIP. DeSclafani is 1-0 with four strikeouts and a 3.18 ERA in one start against Pittsburgh this year.

Pittsburgh’s pitching staff allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starters own a 4.30 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 7.79 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.28, along with a WHIP of 1.29 and a K-per-9 of 10.02.

Pirates hitters have slashed .252/.321/.410 on their way to 4.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (5-0 SU).

Pittsburgh’s hitters have been led by outfielders Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte, who collectively have blasted 22 home runs. Dickerson is hitting .306/.340/.476 with eight home runs, 38 RBIs and 42 runs scored, while Marte (.286/.333/.489) has produced 14 homers, 48 RBIs, 53 runs and 25 stolen bases.

For the home team, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has allowed 5.2 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starters have a 5.19 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.24 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 8.1 K/9. In 46 divisional games, Reds starters have an ERA of 5.42 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.05.

Cincinnati’s offense has put up 4.8 runs per contest, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .303/.377/.449 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Reds’ batters have been led by second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza. Gennett is hitting .324/.373/.518 with 16 home runs, 63 RBIs and 60 runs scored, and Peraza’s line is .293/.338/.390 with five homers, 35 RBIs, 53 runs and 17 stolen bases.

The Pirates have gained 1.2 units and are 34-37 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 30 of those games, compared to 34 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 5.2 units and are 42-29 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 35 of those games, compared to 33 that went under the total.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER

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Betting Notes

Pittsburgh has logged 23 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Cincinnati has 18 XBH over its last five.

The Pirates have won nine of their last 10 games SU.

Pittsburgh has posted 23.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 27.6 over its last five.

The Pirates have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games, including 12 over their last five.


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