Jeff Locke (1-0, 3.00 ERA) and Jimmy Nelson (1-0, 0.00 ERA) are on the hill in the first of a three-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (3-6) and the Milwaukee Brewers (2-7) at PNC Park. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Friday, Apr. 17 and can be seen on FSN-WI and ROOT-PIT.
Locke is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 30 strikeouts against the Brewers. Andrew McCutchen (.207 ) went 1 for 2 Wednesday. When pitching against the Pirates, Nelson is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, and nine strikeouts. Adam Lind (.333 ) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Pittsburgh is a -122 favorite against Milwaukee and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Pirates have an overall money line of -364 and a record as the favorite of 1-3. Pittsburgh’s batters do not strike out very often at home, with only 5.3 per game. Crossing over to the pitching staff, opposing offenses that come to PNC Park have been stifled by the Pirates, who have a team ERA of only 2.33 at home. The Pirates are the fifth-best team in the NL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.7 walks per game so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Milwaukee has a 1-1 record and an overall money line of -483. They are 1-1 as the underdog against NL Central foes, and 2-3 SU. Offensively, the Brewers have really picked up the pace in division games. They have exceeded their season average of 2.9 runs per game by averaging 3.4 in those contests. The Brewers average 5.5 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL Central is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.8 against division foes. When it comes to issuing walks, the Brewers have the fewest in the NL with only 1.8 walks allowed per game.
The Pirates lead the season series, 2-1. The Pirates have a bad 3-6 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Nelson takes the mound.
Predictions: SU Winner – PIT, O/U – Over
Notes
Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have both won 33% (1-2) of their games when they lead after 7 innings.
The Pirates are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Brewers have a 2-5 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Pirates are 0-4. The Brewers have a 1-6 record when opponents outhit them.
Milwaukee ranks near the bottom of the league at 29th when it comes to home runs, hitting three this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the top 10 at ninth with nine.
Ranking 15th, Pittsburgh is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 6.67 per game. Milwaukee ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 7.63.
Pittsburgh and Milwaukee both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Pittsburgh sits at 29th with an OPS of .593 and Milwaukee ranks 28th with an OPS of .601.
The Brewers are 0-4 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Pirates are 2-5 when they allow at least one homer.
