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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Week 3 Free Betting Pick

Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

The Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) are heading south to battle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. ESPN will broadcast the action and this Monday Night Football showdown kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview

Tampa Bay is entering this matchup as the underdog and is currently getting 2 points. The Steelers are also receiving -130 moneyline odds while the Buccaneers are +110. It appears that there might be multiple good live betting opportunities for the showdown, and Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 52. With the Buccaneers getting 2 points, oddsmakers are speculating that this could be a 25-27 win for the Steelers.

Square bettors have been hammering the over. This game’s total was set initially at 51.

The Steelers have lost 1.7 units so far and are 0-2 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U mark of 2-0. The Buccaneers have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 4.5 units. They’re 2-0 ATS and also have an O/U record of 2-0.

The Steelers are 0-1-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Buccaneers are 2-0 SU.

The Steelers fell to Kansas City 42-37 in a Week 2 contest where their defense allowed the Chiefs to pass for 326 yards and six touchdowns while rushing for 127 yards. On the offensive side of the ball, Ben Roethlisberger completed 39 passes for 452 yards and three touchdowns. James Conner (17 rushing yards on eight attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. JuJu Smith-Schuster (13 receptions, 121 yards, one TD) and Antonio Brown (nine catches, 67 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Tampa Bay just put together a 27-21 win over Philadelphia in Week 2. Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 27-of-33 passes for 402 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Peyton Barber (22 rushing yards on 16 attempts) spearheaded the running game as Mike Evans (10 receptions, 83 yards, one TD) and Chris Godwin (five catches, 56 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

Pittsburgh has run the ball on 32.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tampa Bay has an overall rush percentage of 48.3 percent. The Steelers have produced 96 rush yards per game and have four scores on the ground this year. The Bucs are totaling 78 rushing yards per game and have just one rush TD.

The Steelers offense has averaged 394 yards through the air overall and has four passing scores so far. The Bucs have produced 410 pass yards per outing and have eight total pass TD.

Defensively, Pittsburgh seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 152 yards and pass for 262 yards per game. The Tampa Bay defense has allowed 386.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 67.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Steelers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.46 to opponents, while the Bucs have given up a whopping 8.59 ANY/A.

Offensively, Roethlisberger has put up 452 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 65 percent of his 60 attempts with three scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. He’s got an 8.23 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 6.60 over the last two outings.

We expect the Pittsburgh offense to mix it up in this one. James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Jesse James have combined to account for 695 total yards and five touchdowns over the last two outings.

In the other locker room, Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed 27-of-33 passes for 402 yards, four TDs and one INT. Fitzpatrick’s ANY/A sits at 12.23 for the season and 14.68 across his past two games.

Look for Fitzpatrick to attack all areas of the Pittsburgh secondary. DeSean Jackson (129 receiving yards and one receiving TD this season), Mike Evans (83 receiving yards, one receiving TD), and O.J. Howard (96 receiving yards, one TD) have collectively notched 655 receiving yards and six scores over the last couple of games.

NFL Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

SU Winner – Buccaneers, ATS Winner – Buccaneers, O/U – Over

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Notes

Team Betting Trends

The Steelers offense has created one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Buccaneers have put up two such plays.

Both teams have allowed zero pass plays of 40+ yards. The Pittsburgh defense has given up three pass plays of 30+ yards while Tampa Bay has yielded two such plays.

Both teams have produced one rushing play of 20+ yards. The Pittsburgh offense has recorded five running plays of 10+ yards while Tampa Bay has accounted for three such plays.

The Steelers defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Buccaneers have given up zero such runs.

The Pittsburgh defense has twice as many sacks as Tampa Bay this year (eight versus four).

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Written by GMS Previews

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