Midterm elections have historically been a referendum on the party and the man occupying the White House. That will almost certainly be the case on November 6 as President Donald Trump has proven to be one of the most polarizing political figures in American history, And, as with any incumbent President, he will loom large over this year’s midterm races, including the battle for control of the United States Senate.
At present, the Senate includes 51 Republicans and 47 Democrats, plus two independents who caucus with the Democrats, giving the GOP, for practical purposes, a two-seat majority.
The folks at BetDSI Sportsbook have set odds of -400 that the Republicans will still control the Senate next January, and +320 that the Democrats will be in the majority. Those are their numbers, here are ours.
There will be 35 Senate seats at stake this fall. That’s two more than would normally have been the case since two Senators who were appointed on an interim basis will stand for election to full terms this fall.
Of those 35 seats, 26 are held by the Democrats plus the two independents. Just nine are held by Republicans, three of whom, Bob Corker from Tennessee, Jeff Flake from Arizona, and Orrin Hatch of Utah, have announced they will not seek re-election.
Bob Corker, Jeff Flake and Orrin Hatch — some of Trump’s fiercest Republican critics on trade — are retiring from the Senate at the end of this year.
But Pat Toomey isn’t going anywhere. https://t.co/z2BzCcyqqr pic.twitter.com/4yaz5ZRdyc
— POLITICO (@politico) June 25, 2018
The final field of general election candidates won’t be set until August 28 because five states have primaries between now and then.
For the Democrats to take control they would have to win all 26 races of those plus flip three more in their favor (If the Senate end up a 50-50 split come January, the Republicans would still be in control in practical terms because Vice President Pence would have a tiebreaking vote if needed).
Of the 35 seats that will be up for grabs, how many will be truly competitive?
Start with the 10 seats now held by Democrats in states that President Trump carried in 2016. Perhaps a half dozen or of those races up to be battleground contests, most notably in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, and West Virginia.
The races in Arizona and Tennessee figure to be competitive because of the pending retirements of Flake and Corker.
Another interesting race is shaping up in Nevada where Republican Dean Heller is seeking reelection. He is the only Republican incumbent seeking reelection in a state that Hillary Clinton carried two years ago.
President Trump is coming to Nevada this weekend to fundraise for one of his favorite rubber stamps in the Senate. Text ROSEN to 91990 to join our team and repeal and replace Dean Heller.https://t.co/KCy6L2m2AU
— Jacky Rosen (@RosenforNevada) June 19, 2018
The race that will draw the most nationwide interest might well be in Texas where Republican incumbent and past Presidential candidate Ted Cruz will be challenged by Congressman Beto O’ Rourke.
Cruz has been extraordinarily visible since mounting his Presidential bid it’s easy to forget that he is a freshman senator. O Rourke will likely be a formidable challenger, but it should be noted that Texas has voted Republican in every Senatorial and Presidential contest since 1994.
Acknowledging the fact that each state has issues unique to that state there are additional elements that will apply universally across the board.
The Power of Incumbency—Incumbency brings with it a powerful electoral push. In 2016, 29 Senators ran for reelection. Twenty-seven of the 29 were successful in their reelection bids. And there is little reason to expect that pattern to change. Since the end of World War II, 84 percent of incumbent Senators who sought re-election and were re-nominated by their party emerged victorious.
The Power of Trump—For all practical purposes, the Republican Party at the national level has become the Trump Party. His base is extremely loyal, although that loyalty being tested by the ongoing immigration debate.
But it’s safe to say that any Republican who strays too far from the Trump mantra will have a difficult time winning this fall.
What of the Democrats?—Since President Trump was inaugurated, the Democrats have made it clear what they’re against. But they have put forward relatively few policy ideas of their own at the national level. Putting all their energy into crafting an ant-Trump message may stoke the energies of the Democratic base. But that strategy likely won’t work without presenting real alternatives to Trump’s policies.
1/ NEW @UTAustin / @texastribune poll: Republican @TedCruz leads Democrat @BetoORourke in race for U.S. Senate seat by 5 points: https://t.co/Z7L7Ohs04o #tx2018 pic.twitter.com/Yp1tcQLIQK
— Texas Tribune (@TexasTribune) June 25, 2018
The Big Issue—As this is written, the biggest issue, or, more correctly, the issue drawing the biggest headlines right now, is immigration.
The images of young children being separated from their parents are impacting the voting public and causing divisions among those who would normally be rock-solid Republican voters and rock-solid supporters of the President.
That said, there is an abundance of time between now and November 6 for another issue to take its place. ‘Another issue’ could manifest itself, such as the Mueller investigation which remains ongoing, or some other event, foreign or domestic, which could dramatically impact the odds, and election results.
Summing it Up—While some Democratic loyalists are talking up the party’s chances of reclaiming the Senate we don’t think that’s likely. There are simply too many competitive races involving too many Democratic incumbents in states that went for President Trump two years ago.
As such the odds posted by BetDSI Sportsbook seem to be about right.
Democratic @RepMaxineWaters on Saturday encouraged her supporters to fight back against the #Trump administration amid backlash over the @WhiteHouse's “zero-tolerance” immigration policy — and said “the people” will “absolutely harass” Trump staffers. https://t.co/vrclE0bzkD pic.twitter.com/aKlgSv9NF5
— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 25, 2018
That assertion is subject to revision based on what happens on the world stage or on a future Trump pronouncement.
But based on what we know now, with the first day of summer at hand, the Senate will still be in Republican hands come January.
