It will be a battle between Northwest Division opponents when the Denver Nuggets (23-23) welcome the Portland Trail Blazers (25-21) to Pepsi Center. The game is scheduled to start at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, January 22, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 212 points with Denver set as a 3-point favorite.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
The Trail Blazers come in on a high note after beating the Dallas Mavericks in their last outing, 117-108. Portland made 18 of their 36 three pointers (50.0 percent). Dallas, meanwhile, did an excellent job of converting from the charity stripe (22-28; 78.6 percent). With 31 points on 10-for-15 shooting, Damian Lillard was the game’s high scorer.
In the Nuggets’ last matchup, they were beaten by the Phoenix Suns, 108-100. Phoenix’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Denver. The Suns had a rate of 10.9 (better than their season average of 13.4), while the Nuggets posted a mark of 15.5 (above the 11.4 mark opponents have averaged against Phoenix this season). Denver’s Jamal Murray had a good game, leading both teams in scoring with 30 points on 10-for-17 shooting.
Portland could have difficulty getting to the foul line in this showdown. The Trail Blazers rank 17th in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.189, while Denver ranks fourth in FTA rate allowed (0.169).
Portland comes into the game with records of 25-21 straight up (SU) and 21-21-4 against the spread (ATS). Of the Trail Blazers’ 46 games, 27 have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 23-23 SU and 20-24-2 ATS. Nuggets games also have a tendency to finish under the projected point total (60.9 percent).
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Nuggets won the most recent matchup 102-85, covering as 2-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 187 points, which was 15.5 points below the projected point total of 202.5 points. The Nuggets had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (40.0 vs. 23.3) and had a better free throw rate (0.129 vs. 0.108). Nikola Jokic scored a game-high 27 points.
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Trail Blazers, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Portland is 13-9-1 ATS with 12 unders and 11 overs.
At home, Denver is 12-10 ATS with 14 unders and 8 overs.
Portland is 15-4 when they allow below 100 points, while Denver is 12-2.
In games where they score over 100 points, the Trail Blazers are 20-11 and the Nuggets are 18-14.
Denver ranks sixth in fast break points per game (13.7) while Portland ranks 29th (6.4).
The Trail Blazers rank first in assists allowed per game (19.7) while the Nuggets rank 23rd (24.0).
Denver ranks third in points in the paint per game (48.7) while Portland ranks 23rd (42.0).
The Trail Blazers rank 11th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.6) while the Nuggets rank 28th (19.5).
Denver ranks 12th in steals per game (7.9) while Portland ranks 25th (6.8).
The Nuggets average 14.8 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. The Trail Blazers rank 13th in second chance points allowed per game (11.8).
Portland ranks fourth in three pointers allowed per game (25.9) while Denver ranks 15th (28.8).
The Nuggets rank third in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while the Trail Blazers rank 12th (42.5).
Portland ranks seventh in blocks per game (5.2) while Denver ranks 11th in blocks allowed per game (4.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Portland is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Denver is 1-4 ATS with 5 unders over their last five games.
The Trail Blazers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.4, up from 1.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 95.2 points per game (10.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 101.8 points per game (3.9 below their season average).
