The Dallas Mavericks (16-32) take on the Portland Trail Blazers (26-22) at American Airlines Center. The game gets underway at 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday, January 26, 2018.
Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks Betting Prediction
The Trail Blazers come in on a high note after topping the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last game, 123-114. Portland’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Minnesota. The Trail Blazers had a rate of 17.6 (below their season average of 23.0), while the Timberwolves posted a mark of 13.9 (below their season average of 25.4). With 31 points on 9-for-17 shooting, Damian Lillard was the game’s leading scorer.
In the Mavericks’ last game, they were beaten by the Houston Rockets, 104-97. Houston’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Dallas. The Rockets had a rate of 8.9 (better than their season average of 12.9), while the Mavericks posted a mark of 12.6. Dallas’ Wesley Matthews had a good performance, leading both teams in scoring with 29 points on 10-for-18 shooting.
Dallas should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. Dallas ranks second in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.3 percent), while Portland forces the third-fewest turnovers (13.0 percent).
Portland holds records of 26-22 straight up (SU) and 22-21-5 against the spread (ATS). Of the Trail Blazers’ 48 games, 28 have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Dallas is 16-32 SU and 24-24 ATS. Similarly to Portland, just over half of Mavericks games have finished under the projected point total.
Dennis Smith Jr. and Matthews have played at a high level over the last five games for Dallas. Smith Jr. has averaged 20.2 points, 5.2 assists and 1.4 steals per game. Not to be outdone, Matthews has recorded 13.6 points and 1.2 steals a game during that span.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Lillard scored a game-high 31 points in the first matchup, in which the Trail Blazers defeated the Mavericks 117-108, covering as 5.5-point favorites. He also put up nine assists and five rebounds. The game finished with a total of 225 points, which was 15 points above the projected point total of 210 points. Portland’s 0.628 effective field goal percentage was its biggest strength over Dallas, who had a mark of 0.518.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Trail Blazers, ATS Winner – Trail Blazers, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Portland is 13-9-2 ATS on the road with 13 unders and 11 overs.
At home, Dallas is 12-14 ATS with 15 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.
Dallas is 12-8 when they allow less than 100 points, while Portland is 15-4.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Trail Blazers are 21-12 and the Mavericks are 10-15.
Portland ranks seventh in fast break points allowed per game (10.0) while Dallas ranks 28th (14.0).
The Trail Blazers rank ninth in blocks per game (5.1) while the Mavericks rank 28th (3.8).
Dallas ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (31.9) while Portland ranks 23rd (26.2).
The Trail Blazers rank 14th in second chance points per game (12.6) while the Mavericks rank last (9.5).
Portland ranks 11th in rebounds per game (44.3) while Dallas ranks 27th (40.6).
The Mavericks rank 14th in assists per game (22.4) while the Trail Blazers rank 29th (19.1).
Dallas ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.8) while Portland ranks 12th (15.6).
The Trail Blazers rank 22nd in points in the paint per game (42.0) while the Mavericks rank last (38.6).
Neither of these teams are great at stealing the ball. Portland is 25th in the NBA with 6.9 steals per game while Dallas is 27th with 6.8 steals per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Portland is 3-1-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Trail Blazers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.2, up from 1.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 101.2 points per game (1.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 101.6 points per game (2.5 below their season average).
