In the first part of my Pre-Draft Quarterback Rankings Preamble, I discussed the three most important factors I use to evaluate a potential NFL QB; clutch, reading progressions, pocket awareness and then accuracy.
This flies in the face of conventional scouting and QB evaluation method used by the “professionals.” The same professionals that drafted Christian Ponder, E.J. Manuel, Jake Locker and Jamarcus Russell in the first round. Needless to say, the pros have screwed up plenty.
What else do I look for? It depends on the guy. With some quarterbacks, like Prescott, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, athleticism is factored in. With a guy like Teddy Bridgewater or Matt Ryan, it isn’t. Athleticism should be an asset to a quarterback’s arsenal, not all he’s bringing to the table. Steve Young was a great, athletic quarterback. John Elway was a great, athletic quarterback. Randall Cunningham wasn’t. Michael Vick wasn’t. If being athletic and strong is all a QB has, he’ll always crash and burn. Just look at Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III.
Tennessee QB Josh Dobbs (aerospace engineer major) is trying to figure out how to record his throwing session at IMG on his drone #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/fAbKMwQFV6
— Stack Sports (@StackSports) February 13, 2017
Here’s what I don’t give one single shit about; arm strength. For whatever reason this is the holy grail of quarterback evaluation and it is, absolutely, the most useless tool in a professional NFL QB’s arsenal. It’s like the scouts and GMs don’t even watch their own sport. That’s not to say some noodle-armed quarterback has a shot in the NFL. They obviously don’t, but those guys aren’t even in the process anyway. Any QB, probably through all three legit levels of NCAA Football (FBS, FCS and Division II) has all the arm strength needed. If a QB can get a ball 50 yards down the field in the air, that’s good enough. Sure, it’s great if a guy has a cannon like Joe Flacco or Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre, but you know who doesn’t have a rocket launcher? Tom Brady. Peyton Manning. Kurt Warner. Joe Montana. Dan Marino. Drew Brees. I could go on, but you get the point. Michael Vick, Jamarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf all had big arms. What good did it do?
So why do scouts and teams continue to give this useless “non-skill” so much weight? I have no clue.
I also toss out the stats. Stats can be misleading and make a guy look better than he really is. For instance, Jared Goff’s offense at California ran a lot of screens. Screens can pile up yards and even points, but what skill does that show Goff has? None.
#NFLdraft prospect @JourdanJD getting ready to jump out the gym #nflcombine barwisbuilt #goblue #1stround pic.twitter.com/COdM1qdqBb
— Mike Barwis (@BarwisMethods) February 13, 2017
When I’m watching a tape, I ignore any screen pass to a back or wideout. I also ignore any called run and scrambles can only work against a a quarterback, depending on the situation. The fact that a guy saw green grass in front of him and took off doesn’t impress me as a QB skill. The fact that a guy slides short of a first down on a third down scramble is a big red X on his evaluation and I’ve seen it. On highlight tapes, if you can believe it.
Here’s what else I discount when I look at the tape. Any freakish catch. Just because a quarterback played with an elite wide receiver who can do freakish things to his body doesn’t make that QB a playmaker. Those touchdowns and yards get added to that QBs stat sheet, but generally these are bad passes. Underthrows or just outright misses that some freak athlete at receiver comes down with or some lucky bastard finds sitting in his hands after it’s batted around like a pinball.
“He might be the most polarizing prospect in the #NFLDraft.” https://t.co/RaSah30UNC pic.twitter.com/lIFXO3YLSv
— NFL (@NFL) February 12, 2017
Here’s what else I don’t give a damn about. Roll out, one-read passes, option runs and, especially, called quarterback runs. You see all of those a lot in the college game and as we count down our 10 quarterbacks in the NFL draft, you’ll see plenty on the highlight tapes I post along with them and they are completely worthless as an evaluation tool. Sure, they worked and most of the times on the tapes even scored. I don’t give a damn. You’re not going to run that Pop Warner shit in the NFL and have it work consistently. See again Kaepernick and RGIII.
Simply put, what I want to see from a quarterback prospect in a game or on a highlight tape is the kind of throws, plays, pocket presence and clutch passes that are required to win NFL games. Starting tomorrow, you’ll get my evaluations of the Top 10 quarterbacks coming out in the 2017 NFL Draft based on that criteria.
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