Lamar Jackson’s first start at quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens came with a couple of broken records, but more importantly, a victory. The Ravens knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals, 24-21, to stay alive in the AFC Wild Card race and Jackson’s performance, running a pure read-option attack, was a big part of it.
Baltimore finished with a 51-19 run-pass ratio and Jackson got 27 of those carries, setting a new NFL record for quarterbacks carrying the ball. His 117 yards rushing was a new Ravens yardage record. Is that kind of offense and performance sustainable in the NFL?
The next few weeks will tell us a lot. What we do know for sure is that Joe Flacco will miss at least one more start. Jackson will get the call once again, this time against the hapless Oakland Raiders and their No. 21-ranked rushing defense.
Lamar Jackson total rushing attempts in Week 12 vs Raiders
Over 19.5 (-125)
Under 19.5 (-105)
Related: NFL Betting Guide | Week 12 Odds
Lamar Jackson total rushing yards in Week 12 vs Raiders
Over 85.5 (-115)
Under 85.5 (-115)
Will Lamar Jackson record 100 or more rushing yards in Week 12 vs Raiders?
Yes +150
No -200
Lamar Jackson total rushing yards during the 2018 regular season
Over 650.5 (-115)
Under 650.5 (-115)
Here’s the thing about a read-option offense. These aren’t called runs. When Jackson gets the ball, he can give it to the back, keep it, or in some plays, actually pass it. Very few, if any, of those 27 rushes Jackson amassed against the Bengals were called quarterback keepers. The offense is predicated on reading the defense and fooling them, which is why the quarterback keeper was so open every time he ran it against the Bengals.
Lamar Jackson is the first quarterback in the Super Bowl Era to record at least 100 rushing yards in his first career start. (via @EliasSports) pic.twitter.com/3MrldzMQTK
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 18, 2018
Marvin Lewis, and his new defensive assistant Hue Jackson, refused to adjust and actually play Jackson like a runner. Will Jon Gruden and defensive coordinator Paul Guenther make the same mistake? Since Gruden hasn’t proven he can coach a Pop Warner team and Guenther is a direct disciple of Marvin Lewis, signs point to yes.
Still, 20 carries for a quarterback is a lot, even in this kind of attack. If the defense is keying on Jackson, then that means he’ll give the ball to Alex Collins or Gus Edwards. And that’s all predicated on how close the game is (or if the Ravens are up big at any point). If Baltimore trails by any significant margin, the read-option is out the window.
Lamar Jackson reached 15+ MPH on 14 rush attempts in his first career NFL start. No other player has reached 15+ MPH on more than 9 rush attempts in any game this season.#CINvsBAL #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/vVOofcSy1q
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 18, 2018
The safest bet here would be the under, both in attempts and in yardage, which would then make the answer “no” on Jackson crossing the century mark.
Lastly, will Jackson hit 651 rushing yards on the season? Right now he’s sitting at 256 yards, so he’d need to gain about 66 yards a game the rest of the way for the over. If he’s starting the next six games, that’s an easy bet to make. I don’t think there’s any guarantee that happens. Flacco is on his way out the door, but there’s no question he’s the better quarterback. The only way Jackson keeps his job is if he somehow upsets the Atlanta Falcons and Kansas City Chiefs over the next two weeks. I just don’t see that happening.
.@Ravens @Lj_era8 and the new playbook included a variety of RPO’s; and his decision making was flawless. Give/Throw. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/bRsekWg5nv
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) November 19, 2018
