The UFC 189 card scheduled for Las Vegas on July 11 features a heavy duty welterweight title fight as Robbie Lawler defends his UFC belt for the first time against Rory MacDonald. MacDonald has opened at the books a (-175) favorite over Lawler, who is returning at (+135). The scheduled five-round bout has an over/under of 3.5 rounds, with the over paying (-180) and the under returning at (+140).
MacDonald is 18-2 overall, and he has won three fights in a row. Back in November of 2013, MacDonald was on a five-fight winning streak and people were talking about how he was practically destined to win the UFC title when he met Lawler for the first time. After a hard fought three rounds, Lawler came out on top and he used the momentum from that win to earn a shot at the title. Lawler too has won three fights in a row since then and, with fights against Jake Ellenberger, Johny Hendricks (twice) and Matt Brown, he has kept the higher level of competition.
MacDonald is confident and he expects to win. He was confident heading into his first match against Lawler and he will be confident again. He will have his height and reach advantages as he almost always does, but Lawler is smart and will come in and set the pace of the fight rather than letting MacDonald dictate the pace. Taking it to MacDonald and making him fight outside of his comfort zone was the key to Lawler’s victory the first time. This is a five round five, a length of match where Lawler has tons of experience but MacDonald has never been faced with. MacDonald will come in physically conditioned to go five rounds, as the physical side is not the question with MacDonald. On the mental side however, quite frankly, he has never seemed exceptionally sharp and he is used to fighting from an advantage. Lawler will be looking to get inside MacDonald’s head.
At 25 years old, MacDonald will likely have a piece of the UFC title at some point, but it should be remembered that this is his first shot at the title, and it may take a loss in his first title fight to toughen him up mentally. And what is with the nickname change from “Ares” (bad) to “Red King” (worse)? It seems like Lawler is unlikely to be thinking about what a cool nickname would be and, if he was, he would certainly do better than “Red King”.
