The Tampa Bay Buccaneers needed a running back about as much as any other team entering the draft. They didn’t wait very long to address the position, picking USC’s Ronald Jones 38th overall.
We can't wait to have the dynamic @rojo in our backfield. 🏃♂️💨#GoBucs☠️ | #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/BbhBemhv2n
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) April 27, 2018
The pick immediately vaulted Jones into the discussion of most sought-after rookie running backs after Saquon Barkley. His path to playing time is about as clear as it gets. It’s early, but he already projects as a solid fantasy starter.
Reasons to Get Excited
Situation
Now that the Doug Martin era is officially over, the Bucs are looking for a new long-term answer at running back. Before adding Jones, their options were Peyton Barber, Jacquizz Rodgers and Charles Sims. Barber led the group in 2017 with 423 yards and three touchdowns in 16 games.
In other words, Barber is joining one of 2017’s least effective backfields. Tampa finished 27th in both rushing yards (1,450) and yards per carry (3.7). Jones will presumably still have to earn the job, but it shouldn’t be too difficult considering his draft status and competition.
Production
Jones scored 39 touchdowns in three seasons at USC. In 2017, only three running backs exceeded his 18 scores. The film is impressive as well.
The Buccaneers land Ronald Jones II with the 38th selection in the draft, almost exactly where he was on the PFF big board pic.twitter.com/qoBhmAz2L4
— PFF (@PFF) April 27, 2018
Jones was one of the highest-graded running backs in the history of Pro Football Focus. He’s drawing comparisons to Jamaal Charles, which would obviously make him a huge fantasy asset.
Big Plays
According to ESPN, Jones had 74 rushes of 12 or more yards in 40 games at USC. He had at least one such run in 12 of his 13 games in 2017. In that one game without a 12-yard run, he still managed to add a 56-yard touchdown reception. He also had at least one 20-yard run in nine games. The Jamaal Charles comparisons are apt if he can continue this at the next level.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Passing Game
Though Jones made some plays as a receiver in college, he was mostly used as an outlet. It doesn’t mean he can’t produce as a receiver, but he may not get many opportunities. That’s especially true as long as the Bucs still have Charles Sims, who finished tied for 23rd among running backs with 47 targets. Add in the fact that rookies tend to struggle in pass protection and it may be a while before Jones gets a full workload.
Size
Jones didn’t have many injury problems in college, but there is a troubling sign. At 5-foot-11 and 205 pounds, he is a little undersized. He averaged 15.5 touches per game at USC, which isn’t bad (Alex Collins ranked 19th in the NFL last year with 15.7) but would put him below workhorse numbers.
Yes, he did have a four-week stretch at the end of 2017 when he averaged 29 touches per game. But if he does get that sort of dream workload in the NFL, it’s unclear if he’ll be able to hold up physically.
Game Flow
If 2018 goes anything like 2017, Tampa will be throwing the ball often. Tampa’s defense gave up 23.9 points per game, leading to a -47 point differential. That also contributed to the Bucs finishing 26th in the league in rushing attempts. If Jones does take a backseat on passing downs, we may see him much less often than we’d hope.
Conclusion
Jones arguably saw his stock rise more than any other fantasy-relevant rookie after the draft. He could easily see an RB2 workload with the potential for RB1 numbers if he manages to make the game-breaking runs he was known for in college. If he impresses in the preseason, he could work his way into being a fourth or fifth-round pick.
