After releasing starter C.J. Anderson in mid-April, the Denver Broncos entered the draft very much in need of some help at a position that featured only Devontae Booker and De’Angelo Henderson. They addressed their need early in the third round, selecting Oregon’s Royce Freeman 71st overall.
.@oregonfootball’s all-time leading rusher is coming to Denver.
Welcome to #BroncosCountry, @rolls_royce21! pic.twitter.com/ZwvHUim23o
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) April 28, 2018
Freeman finds himself in an ideal situation. Though his Oregon career trended downward, he could claim this backfield and a sizable role in fantasy even if he ends up being little more than above average.
Reasons to Get Excited
Depth Chart
As mentioned, there isn’t much standing in Freeman’s way of becoming Denver’s starter. Booker’s 3.6 yards per carry are indicative of the poor first two seasons of his career. Henderson only touched the ball seven times as a rookie.
Thanks mostly to the losses of Anderson and Jamaal Charles, the Broncos lead the league in unaccounted-for carries.
Top 5 Most Unaccounted-For Carries from '17 rosters:#Broncos 359: Royce Freeman > Dev. Booker > DeA. Henderson#Cardinals 356: David Johnson#Browns 295: Carlos Hyde > Nick Chubb > Duke Johnson#Colts 268: Marlon Mack > Jordan Wilkins > Bob Turbin#Giants 264: Saquon Barkley
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) May 9, 2018
It’s possible Booker and Henderson pick up a fair share of the available carries. It’s more likely most of them go to Freeman. He should be the Week 1 starter unless he bombs in the preseason. It’s worth noting the Broncos finished eighth in rushing attempts despite major game flow issues for most of the season.
Production
Freeman broke Oregon’s single-season and all-time rushing yards records which were both previously held by LaMichael James. His 5,621 career rushing yards ranked seventh all time. On top of that, he scored at least 16 touchdowns in three of his four seasons with the Ducks. Even if the Broncos do decide to use Booker more than is anticipated, Freeman should at least still be usable due to goal line work.
Durability
In four seasons, Freeman only missed two games. One was due to a leg injury and one was the Las Vegas Bowl in December when he opted to sit out. That’s impressive for a guy who had 1,026 touches in college.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Wear and Tear
Wait, 1,026 touches? That’s a lot of mileage for a rookie running back. He could obviously handle it considering he rarely missed time at Oregon, but how long is that going to last? Could he withstand a 16-game schedule against NFL defenses? This definitely hurts Freeman’s value in dynasty leagues and is the main strike against him in 2018.
Peaked Early?
One recurring comment about Freeman that is simultaneously a compliment and an insult is “if he can return to 2015 form.”
If Royce Freeman can get back to his 2015 form, the Broncos may have found a steal in the third round. pic.twitter.com/XxQZZxjojp
— PFF (@PFF) May 6, 2018
Like Nick Chubb, Freeman had a monster year early in his career and fell off a bit toward the end. His junior year was the low point, as he could muster just 945 yards and nine touchdowns.
So what if he doesn’t return to form? Is the heavy college workload already taking its toll? A trying rookie season isn’t out of the question.
Passing Game
Freeman was rarely used as a receiver in college. He proved capable in his breakout 2015 season, but typically he was Oregon’s fifth or sixth option. It’s tough to envision the Broncos having him running routes out of the backfield. He’ll lose touches in passing situations and his value takes a hit in PPR leagues.
Conclusion
Freeman is arguably 2015’s top rookie running back after Saquon Barkley. It will be a surprise if he isn’t C.J. Anderson’s heir and the beneficiary of Denver’s typically run-heavy attack. Freeman’s current ADP is RB44, which would be a steal. He should be in the early 30s at least. Don’t hesitate to take advantage of a potential late-round bargain. He could easily be a locked-in RB2 all season.
