The Portland State Vikings (19-12, 9-9 BigSky) meet the Sacramento State Hornets (7-24, 4-14 BigSky) in the Big Sky Conference Tourney at Reno Events Center. The game begins at 11:05 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 6, 2018.
Portland State opened as a 6.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 155.5 points.
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Portland State Vikings Betting Prediction
In the Hornets’ last matchup, they topped the Northern Colorado Bears, 88-77. The Hornets had a great turnover percentage of 9.8 (better than their season average of 16.1) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.554 (above their season average of 0.499). Sacramento State received a boost from Jordan Tolbert, who contributed 20 points, eight assists and five rebounds.
The Vikings beat the North Dakota Fighting Hawks in their last matchup, 97-90. The Vikings forced 20 turnovers and had a free throw rate of 0.300 (above their season average of 0.215). With 18 points and 13 rebounds, Brandon Hollins put together a good game for Portland State.
The prolific offense of Portland State (55th in the NCAA with an offensive efficiency of 112.2) will square off against the bottom-tier defense of Sacramento State (301st in the NCAA with a defensive efficiency of 110.0). The Vikings should have the edge on that end of the court.
Sacramento State comes into the game with records of 7-24 straight up (SU) and 12-16-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total low when the Hornets are involved, as 55.2 percent of their games have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Portland State is 19-12 SU and 16-12 ATS. Much like Sacramento State, games involving the Vikings also have typically gone over the total (60.7 percent).
The Hornets have won both matchups against the Vikings this season, including a 71-61 victory the last time these teams met. Sacramento State covered as a 12-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 132 points, which was 26 points below the projected point total of 158 points. Getting to the free throw line was one of Sacramento State’s largest advantages. They made 31 trips to the line, while Portland State went just 14 times. Tolbert was the game’s top overall scorer with 26 points.
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Portland State Vikings Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Portland State, ATS Winner – Portland State, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Portland State ranks 25th in three pointers attempted per game (26.6) while Sacramento State ranks 274th (17.7).
The Vikings rank 37th in rebounds per game (38.5) while the Hornets rank 271st (32.0).
Portland State ranks second in steals per game (9.9) while Sacramento State ranks 194th (5.3).
The Vikings rank 16th in assists per game (16.8) while the Hornets rank 176th (13.1).
Sacramento State averages 3.4 blocks per game, which ranks 115th in the NCAA. Portland State ranks 179th in blocks allowed per game (4.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Sacramento State is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Portland State is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Hornets’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.8, down from 6.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Vikings have scored an average of 86.8 points per game (0.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 81.8 points per game (1.6 above their season average).
