The No. 15 Saint Mary’s Gaels (24-3, 13-1 WCC) travel to San Francisco to take on the Dons (14-13, 6-8 WCC) in what should be a low-scoring game. The game will air on ESPNU at 11 p.m. ET on Thursday, February 15, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 136.5 points with Saint Mary’s set as a 9.5-point favorite.
Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. San Francisco Dons Betting Prediction
In the Gaels’ last outing, they were beaten by the No. 12 Gonzaga Bulldogs, 78-65. Gonzaga’s 5.3 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Saint Mary’s, who had a mark of 12.6. The Bulldogs’ mark was better than their season average of 14.2. Saint Mary’s’ Jordan Ford had a solid outing, putting up 17 points.
The Dons lost a close one to the BYU Cougars in their last outing, 75-73. BYU’s 0.333 free throw rate was their biggest advantage over San Francisco, who had a mark of 0.177. The Cougars’ mark was above their season average of 0.297. With 21 points on 7-for-12 shooting, Souley Boum led San Francisco in scoring.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the nation’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. San Francisco currently ranks 296th in possessions per game (67.2) and Saint Mary’s is 345th (64.0).
Saint Mary’s comes into the game with records of 24-3 straight up (SU) and 11-12 against the spread (ATS). Of the Gaels’ 23 games that accepted bets, 15 have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, San Francisco owns records of 14-13 SU and 9-14 ATS. Coinciding with Saint Mary’s, games including the Dons also have a tendency to go under the total (56.5 percent).
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Jock Landale scored a game-high 26 points and the Gaels beat the Dons 79-43, covering as 13.5-point favorites. He also put up 12 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 122 points, which was 15.5 points below the projected point total of 137.5 points. The Gaels made seven of their nine free throws (77.8 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (39.4 vs. 22.5).
Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. San Francisco Dons Betting Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Saint Mary’s, ATS Winner – San Francisco, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Saint Mary’s is 7-5 ATS with 6 unders, 5 overs and 1 push.
San Francisco is 3-8 ATS at home with 6 unders and 5 overs.
San Francisco ranks 47th in three pointers attempted per game (25.3) while Saint Mary’s ranks 237th (19.1).
The Gaels rank 26th in assists per game (16.8) while the Dons rank 179th (13.0).
Saint Mary’s ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (27.7) while San Francisco ranks 116th (34.0).
The Dons rank 157th in steals per game (5.8) while the Gaels rank 230th (4.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Saint Mary’s is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 push.
San Francisco is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Gaels’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 12.8, down from 13.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Dons have scored an average of 64.8 points per game (3.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 71.6 points per game (3.6 above their season average).
