Though the New York Jets have spent plenty of draft capital on quarterbacks, they’ve yet to find one that could stick. Geno Smith, Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg each came and went without living up to their draft status. Perhaps the Jets have finally found their man after selecting USC’s Sam Darnold third overall.
Congratulations to USC QB Sam Darnold on being selected No. 3 overall by the @nyjets!#USCtotheNFL | #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/spuDHQIN6D
— USC Trojans (@USC_Athletics) April 27, 2018
Darnold had some turnover issues in his final season with the Trojans, but he never lost his place as one of the top quarterbacks in this class. He enters a situation full of turmoil, but he’s bound to start a few games at some point in 2018.
Reasons to Get Excited
Talent
Many scouts considered Darnold to be the top-rated quarterback in this class.
Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield all have grades of at least 90 on Scouts Inc., the first time in 15 years that four QBs in same Draft grade that high:
Scouts Inc. QB Grades, 2018
Darnold, USC 94
Allen, WYO 92
Rosen, UCLA 92
Mayfield, OKLA 91
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 5, 2018
He was penciled in as the top overall pick until Baker Mayfield won the Browns over with his interview. As such, his talent could win out and get him on the field sooner rather than later. Some compared Darnold to Andrew Luck, who was a decent fantasy asset in his rookie year. He could prove to be a steal as soon as he steps on the field.
Early Reports
Reporters are raving about the progress Darnold has made so far.
My top takeaway from Day 2 of #Jets minicamp:
Sam Darnold has STAR written all over him… and the Jets know it.
It's a matter of when… not if.
— Manish Mehta (@MMehtaSports) June 14, 2018
His coaches are getting in on the action too. Praise in June rarely means anything, but it’s the extent of the praise that is noteworthy. They’re not saying “looks good” or “making progress.” They’re using words like “star” and “excellent.” Again, it could mean nothing, but it’s a positive sign.
Pro-Ready
Almost all of Darnold’s scouting reports described him as some variation of “pro-ready” or “complete.” That means he may not need as much time on the bench as some of the other rookie quarterbacks. There are obstacles, but Darnold has a relatively clear path to playing time.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Depth Chart
The aforementioned obstacles are Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater. McCown will be 39 when the season starts and has a lengthy injury history. He likely won’t be around long, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he started four to six games. Bridgewater’s promising Vikings career ended after a catastrophic knee injury kept him off the field for over 14 months. The Jets could also be tempted to see what they’ve got in him. Darnold is the future, but the Jets could rely on the old guard for much of 2018.
Receivers
The Jets have a whopping 14 receivers on their roster and only one of them (Terrelle Pryor) has a 1,000-yard season. There are some serviceable players, such as Jermaine Kearse, Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa, but no one who strikes fear into opposing defenses.
The tight end situation is bleaker. Oakland castoff Clive Walford leads the group while the other five tight ends on the roster have 26 receptions between them. It won’t matter how good Darnold is if no one can get open.
Coaching Staff History
Head coach Todd Bowles returns to the Jets after fielding some of the worst pass offenses in the league in 2016 and 2017. Bowles has a defensive background so he can be forgiven to some extent. But the Jets’ new offensive coordinator, Jeremy Bates, hasn’t led a quality offense in years.
The Seahawks were 19th in passing offense when he led them in 2010. The Chicago Bears were 29th in 2012 when he was their quarterbacks coach. He took a long break and reappeared in 2017 to coach the Jets’ quarterbacks. They were 24th in passing offense, which was apparently good enough for Bates to get promoted to offensive coordinator. Though he had a stellar year with Jay Cutler and the Broncos in 2008, that was a long time ago. There’s no reason to think Bates will propel Darnold into fantasy stardom this year.
Conclusion
Darnold could be a good DFS play or bye week fill-in if he has a decent matchup. But that may not happen since we don’t know when or if he’ll be New York’s starter. Pass on Darnold for now, but keep an eye on him. That’s especially true for those who like to wait on quarterbacks. He could surprise if given the opportunity.
