The Miami Heat entered Game 3 of the NBA Finals having not dropped a home game in the 2014 playoffs. Now they’ve lost a game and, what’s even more worrisome for LeBron James and company, they got blown out. The San Antonio Spurs are either going to gain complete control of this series on Thursday night or the Heat are going to roar back and tie up the series at 2-2, setting up a best-of-three.
Thursday, June 12th – 9:00 PM ET
NBA Odds: Miami -5.5
Why The Spurs Can Win
They are now fully aware that they can play a road game at the highest level against an elite team. San Antonio played two and a half ragged games in Oklahoma City in the Western Conference Finals before finally coming up with a strong second half in Game 6 to finish off that series. The Spurs had not yet played a complete road game against a true championship contender in the playoffs. Dallas and Portland do not (and did not) count as title contenders.
Now that San Antonio has shaken off the memory of Game 2, when it blew a chance to take a 2-0 lead in the series, the Spurs should be expected to settle down and play up to their capabilities. They looked wobbly with a seven-point lead late in the third quarter of Game 3 after blowing a 21-point halftime lead and a lead that had swelled to as many as 25 points in the second quarter. Had the Spurs lost Game 3, they’d have been in huge trouble. Now, though, they should be set to play another strong game.
Why The Heat Can Win
They are so good at not losing two straight playoff games. The last time the Heat lost two straight playoff games came against the Boston Celtics in Games 4 and 5 of the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals. (The Heat actually lost three in a row in that series, having also lost Game 3.) This team has developed the ability to bounce back whenever something bad happens. The Heat were down 2-1 in last year’s NBA Finals after losing Game 3. They found a way to win Game 4. Last year’s Game 4 was in San Antonio. This time, the Heat get to play Game 4 on their home court.
You can bet that James will be much better and more effective than he was in Game 3. You can bet that Kawhi Leonard, who was so good for the Spurs in Game 3, won’t match that productivity in Game 4. The Spurs are going to have to live up to a very high standard to take Game 4. The odds are not with them, unless Miami plays so poorly that San Antonio can get away with an average effort. The likelihood is that the Heat are going to even up the series and send it to San Antonio all knotted up, creating a sprint to the finish.
Outlook
This is the kind of thing you don’t bet against: The Heat refuse to lose two playoff games in a row. They always find the answers in this kind of situation. San Antonio threw a big punch in Game 3. The Heat will respond in Game 4.
Pick: Heat
