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San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Free Pick 09/12/18

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres are set to play the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. The game gets going at 6:40 p.m. ET and this interleague showdown will be televised on RTNW and FSSD.

San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners Odds

San Diego (+150) is entering this game as the underdog against Seattle (-160) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this one at 8 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total stand at -115 for the over and -105 for the under. Runline odds stand at -145 for taking the Padres +1.5 runs and +125 for the Mariners -1.5.

The Padres have gone 58-88 SU this year and are 69-76 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 14.5 units for moneyline bettors and 29.4 units ATS. San Diego is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Mariners, on the other hand, are 79-65 SU and 69-74 ATS. They’ve gained 11.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 13.1 units ATS. Seattle has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Seattle games have a 69-72-2 over/under record in 2018. San Diego has an over/under record of 69-71-5.

Left-hander Joey Lucchesi will get the nod for the visiting Padres. Lucchesi is 7-8 with a 3.59 ERA and 120 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with nine strikeouts and a 1.35 ERA against Seattle this year.

The Mariners are sending lefty Wade LeBlanc (8-3, 3.56 ERA) to the mound. LeBlanc has 112 strikeouts and 33 walks to his name, as well as a 1.15 WHIP. LeBlanc hasn’t faced the Padres yet this year and did not record a start against them in 2017.

Seattle’s pitchers have yielded 4.4 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.31, a WHIP of 1.26 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.8. The bullpen has a 3.93 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 9.1 K/9.

The Seattle hitters are putting up 4.1 runs per outing, including 3.1 per game over its last 10 games and 2.2 per game over their last five. The team has hit .197/.263/.338 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Mariners’ offense has been led by shortstop Jean Segura and right fielder Mitch Haniger. Segura is slashing .310/.342/.424 with nine home runs, 60 RBIs, 82 runs and 20 stolen bases, and Haniger’s line sits at .274/.360/.481 with 24 homers, 85 RBIs and 75 runs.

For the visiting squad, San Diego’s pitching staff allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.17 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 7.33 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.52, along with a K/9 of 10.02.

The Padres offense has slashed .235/.298/.379 on its way to 3.8 runs scored per game this season, including 4.1 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

First baseman Eric Hosmer and shortstop Freddy Galvis continue to lead San Diego’s offense. Hosmer is slashing .254/.318/.401 with 16 home runs, 62 RBIs and 67 runs scored, while Galvis (.234/.289/.355) is up to 11 homers, 60 RBIs and 51 runs scored.

The Padres have lost 15.7 units and are 16-29 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 25 of those games, as opposed to 18 that’ve hit the under against lefty starters. On the other hand, the Mariners have lost 2.1 units and are 23-23 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in 18 of those games, compared to 27 that’ve gone under.

San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mariners, ATS Winner – Padres, O/U – UNDER

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Notes

Betting Trends

San Diego has recorded 18 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Seattle has 12 XBH over its last five.

The San Diego defense has allowed four errors over the last 10 games, compared to nine errors for Seattle over its last 10.

The Padres have hit 16 home runs in their last 10 games, including nine over their last five.

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Written by GMS Previews

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