Chris Heston (7-5, 3.83 ERA) and James Shields (7-1, 3.75 ERA) start in the last of a three-game series between the San Francisco Giants (39-34) and the San Diego Padres (35-39) at AT&T Park. The Giants won the last game 6-0 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 3:45 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jun. 25 and can be seen on FSN-SD and NBC Bay Area.
Heston pitched 5.2 innings in his last outing, surrendering three runs and striking out one in a 9-5 win over the Dodgers. Buster Posey (.287, 34 Rs, 11 HRs, 45 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and four RBIs. Shields is 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA against the Giants in his career. He takes on a good San Francisco offense that’s batting .266. Justin Upton (.273, 42 Rs, 13 HRs, 43 RBIs, 15 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Padres, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one stolen base.
San Francisco is a narrow -115 favorite at home against San Diego. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at seven runs for this matchup. The Giants have an overall money line of +57 and a record as the favorite of 16-21. San Francisco has gone winless in its last 10 as the favorite. The Giants have seen a decline in scoring against teams inside their division, averaging 3.4 runs per game. They average 4.0 runs per game on the season.
In games where it is the underdog, San Diego has a 16-23 record and an overall money line of -262. They are 9-13 as the underdog against NL West rivals, and 19-18 SU. Offensively, the Padres have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 4.2 runs per game by averaging 3.0 during that stretch. The Padres average 4.5 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL West is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 3.7 against division foes.
The Padres lead the season series, 5-4. The Giants have a 28-28 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Shields takes the mound. Heston (RHP) will be on the hill against the Padres, who have a 26-31 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – SF, O/U – Over
Notes
San Francisco earned its 12th shutout of the season in its last game. San Diego has been shut out 11 times this season.
When the Padres play into extra innings, they have a 5-3 record. The Giants are 3-2 when their games exceed nine innings.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Padres are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Giants have a 12-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they outhit their opponents, the Padres are 25-7. The Giants have a 34-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 16th in runs, San Francisco has earned 297 this season. San Diego ranks 12th with 304 runs.
Ranking 20th, San Diego is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 191 this season. San Francisco ranks in the top half at 15th with 214.
When the Giants hit at least one home run, they are 27-11, well-matched with the Padres who are 23-12 when hitting one or more homers.
