We knew there would be plenty of buzz around Saquon Barkley heading into draft season. He had his name on the Heisman Trophy up until the end of October, when Penn State suffered back-to-back losses and Barkley’s numbers regressed.
He was considered the unquestioned top running back prospect in the draft even before one of his closest competitors, Stanford’s Bryce Love, decided to return to school. Now that the pre-draft process is in full swing, things have only gotten better for Barkley. The Browns could take him first overall and he may even squeeze into the first round of fantasy drafts.
.@PennStateFball @saquonb21 has a 2 foot jump cut that can’t be measured. He comes with the dust, he leaves with the wind. #BaldyBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/AFsoGeg8Dj
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) March 4, 2018
The main problem is we don’t know where he’ll end up. Wherever you fall on the talent vs. situation spectrum, Barkley’s team will wildly affect his ADP. You’ll never guess which one should scare you the most.
Reasons to Get Excited
The Combine
Barkley’s combine performance was impressive to the point of being historic. Check this out:
Penn State RB Saquon Barkley at 2018 Combine:
– Stronger than Joe Thomas
– Quicker than DeSean Jackson
– Faster than Devin Hester
– Jumps higher than Julio Jones@PennStateFball pic.twitter.com/usgR6vJvOn— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) March 2, 2018
And this:
I like this comp— via @NFLResearch pic.twitter.com/iktjCtBvEF
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) March 2, 2018
So we have a player who compares favorably to some of the NFL’s elite athletes when they were rookies. We also have a player who’s bigger, stronger and faster than potential top fantasy pick David Johnson. Barkley also had the third-highest SPARQ score at the combine. He is going to be one of the best athletes in the NFL from day one.
Rookie Running Back Success
Rookie running backs are turning into one of the best ways to win a fantasy league. Whether it was Todd Gurley in 2015, Ezekiel Elliott in 2016 or Leonard Fournette and Alvin Kamara in 2017, rookie backs have been the cornerstone of many a championship over the last three seasons. There have been rookie disappointments (looking at you, Melvin Gordon) but the upside is undeniable.
You could blow 40 percent of an auction budget on the likes of David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell or Ezekiel Elliott. Many analysts would recommend that strategy. But then if they get injured or suspended, there won’t be much of a backup plan. On the other hand, paying 20 to 25 percent for Barkley would still give you a player with a range of possible outcomes that includes “league-winner.” And, if he’s a bust, there will be extra money to fill the gap with someone worth more than waiver wire fodder.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
The Browns
Here’s the elephant in the room. It would be a shock if Barkley made it out of the top five, and the Browns have the first and fourth pick.
It’s not so much that we know the Browns will be terrible. They may not. The problem is they have a unique talent for taking something good and messing it up somehow.
Consider the fact that the Browns had the most draft choices in both the 2015 and 2016 drafts (26 total). They had the second-most picks in 2017 (10) including the first pick, three first round picks and five picks in the top 65. Any rebuilding team would be thrilled with that kind of draft capital. But the Browns turned it into the second ever 0-16 season. Even if picking Barkley is the right choice, would you really trust Cleveland to get the most out of him?
SPARQ Horror Stories
It takes more than tremendous athleticism to be an every-down running back. Just look at the top five SPARQ backs from 2015, 2016 and 2017. There are some big hits among them, like David Johnson and Alvin Kamara. Aaron Jones did well in limited action. Ameer Abdullah has had his moments. The jury is still out on Matt Breida.
The arithmetically inclined among you will note there are just two league-winners in the bunch, followed by role-players and free agents. It’s also worth noting that none of the top five SPARQ running backs were drafted in the first two rounds, so Barkley is an anomaly. Further, Ezekiel Elliott ranked 42nd in 2016, which proves athleticism isn’t the be-all and end-all.
There is a legitimate fear that Barkley could end up being more Abdullah than Johnson. Not awful, but not someone worth the price in fantasy drafts.
Conclusion
Barkley is impressive, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. There’s no telling what kind of trades will happen between now and draft day, so Barkley could end up in a perfect situation that accentuates all of his strengths.
But he also could end up with the can’t-seem-to-do-anything-right Browns or running behind the Giants’ less-than-stellar offensive line. In that case, it would be more prudent to look for rookie bargains elsewhere. Sony Michel on a good team that’s unsettled at running back would be cheaper and arguably more enticing.
