Felix Hernandez (6-0, 1.85 ERA) starts for the Seattle Mariners (16-19) as they square off against Rick Porcello (3-2, 4.50 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (17-19) in the third of a four-game series at Safeco Field. The Mariners won the last game 2-1 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 9:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, May. 16 and can be seen on NESN, ROOT-NW and MLB Net.
Hernandez is 8-2 with a 3.06 ERA in his appearances against the Red Sox, and goes up against a below-average Boston offense which is batting just .232 this season. Nelson Cruz (.358, 24 Rs, 15 HRs, 30 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI. When pitching against the Mariners, Porcello is 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Seattle, a big -180 favorite, takes on Boston. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at six runs for this matchup. The Mariners have an overall money line of -789 and a record as the favorite of 12-13. Opposing offenses that come to Safeco Field have been stifled by the Mariners, who have a team ERA of only 2.82 at home.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 8-7 record and an overall money line of -393. Offensively, the Red Sox have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 4.2 runs per game by averaging 2.4 during that stretch. Boston is excellent at drawing walks with an AL-best 3.8 per game.
The Mariners have a 12-14 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Porcello takes the mound. Hernandez (RHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 12-14 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – SEA, O/U – Over
Notes
Boston has won 44% (7-9) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Seattle has won 70% (7-3) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Mariners are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Red Sox have a 3-4 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 4-18. The Mariners have a 7-11 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking ninth in home runs, Boston has hit 36 this season. Seattle ranks fourth with 44 home runs.
Ranking 11th, Boston is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.97 per game. Seattle ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 8.18.
Ranking 25th, Boston is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.676). Seattle ranks in the bottom half at 20th with an OPS of .704.
When the Red Sox allow at least one home run, they are 6-18. When the Mariners allow one or more homers, they have a 7-15 record.
