Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Serie A Round 29 Odds and Offers

Serie A Round 29 gets underway on Friday, March 11, as the Juventus vs Sassuolo match was re-arranged to give the Italian champions enough time to prepare for the second leg of Champions League coming next week.

Two Saturday fixtures carry us to the seven remaining matches listed for Sunday, March 13, that wraps up the round.

Let’s get the lines up and discuss some thoughts.

Friday, March 11 – 1 Match

3-Way 1×2 Lines:
Juventus -270
Sassuolo +925
Draw +365

Juve -1.5 +115
Sassuolo +1.5 -135

Total 2.5:
Over +115
Under -135

Saturday, March 12 – 2 Matches

3-Way: 1×2 Lines:
Empoli +115
Sampdoria +270
Draw +230

Empoli -0.5 +115
Sampdoria +0.5 -135

Total 2.5:
Over +100
Under -120

3-Way: 1×2 Lines
Inter Milan -180
Bologna +565
Draw +300
Inter -1 +100
Bologna +1 -120

Total 2.5:
Over +105
Under -125

Sunday, March 13 – 7 Matches

3-Way: 1×2 Lines
Chievo Verona +315
AC Milan +100
Draw +235

Chievo +0.5 -120
Milan -0.5 +100

Total 2:
Over -145
Under +125

3-Way: 1×2 Lines
Carpi -110
Frosinone +350
Draw +235
Carpi -0.5 -110
Frosinone +0.5 -110

Total 2.5:
Over +120
Under -140

3-Way: 1×2 Lines
Fiorentina -310
Hellas Verona +950
Draw +425

Fiorentina -1.5 -105
Verona +1.5 -115

Total 3:
Over +110
Under -130

3-Way: 1×2 Lines
Genoa +160
Torino +210
Draw +205

Genoa Pk -125
Torino Pk +105

Total 2.5:
Over +125
Under -145

3-Way: 1×2 Lines
Udinese +365
AS Roma -120
Draw +255

Udinese +0.5 +100
Roma -0.5 -120

Total 2.5:
Over +105
Under -125

3-Way: 1×2 Lines
Lazio -170
Atalanta +575
Draw +280

Lazio -1 +100
Atalanta +1 -120

Total 2.5:
Over +105
Under -125

3-Way: 1×2 Lines
Palermo +1100
Napoli -340
Draw +445

Palermo +1.5 -105
Napoli -1.5 -115

Total 3:
Over -120
Under +100

As stated, the Juventus vs Sassuolo match got moved to Friday, and I saw those lines and wondered why the hell the line setters would offer plus money on the -1.5 handicap at +115. Raise your hand if that scares you? What is Sassuolo going to do, be the club that snaps the string for GiGi Buffon and the Juve Defense?

Sorry, but um, I don’t think Sassuolo is going to come close to finding the net on Friday, and we damn well know that Sassuolo will not be able to contain Juve for 90 minutes. I see a 2 – 0 easily coming to fruition, and suggest that handicap offer of -1.5 on the home side with Juve at +115.

The Saturday Empoli / Sampdoria total is almost too hysterical to suggest to bet. I see an even money +100 offer on the straight 2.5 to go Over the number, and I don’t think I hit submit fast enough when I saw that line and thought of these two on the same pitch. Empoli is struggling mightily to get results and Samp has suddenly found their offense again, so I see 2 – 1 here within the hour mark to be honest.

I am avoiding the other Saturday match completely, simply because Bologna has played three straight 0 – 0 matches, so it wouldn’t surprise me if it was 3 – 3 or 0 – 0 again with Inter Milan across the pitch. Can’t touch it.

So okay, you have the Juventus -1.5 @ +115 for Friday
and you have the Empoli V Samp Over 2.5 @ +100

By the way, you may notice I don’t list prices or bets. I do that because I am a flat bettor for the most part and play just about everything for the same amount, so I don’t tell anyone how much I bet or how much you should bet. I just offer the plays, bet them myself, and then offer them to the world. It has been that way for me for about 15 years now, so I hope you get why I do things the way I do on the site.

Anyway, to Sunday we go, and amongst one of the 9 AM matches that I see is Carpi and Frosinone playing at Alberto Braglia, but who is going to stop who? Two bottom feeders in the Serie A table that are dying for results, and hey, Carpi is getting some draws in there lately, but let’s be real here. These two defenses are among the worst in the league, and I see the handicap total of Over 2 and 2.5 at Even money 2.00 or +100.

So you’re telling me that a 1 – 1 result wouldn’t be the worst result in the world? Half a loss is something I never shy away from on a 2.25 handicap with an even money line attached to it. As much as I believe we will see that third goal to cash the ticket outright, I will at least still stay with my own style and offer the Over 2 & 2.5 (2.25 AH) at +100 in the Carpi V Frosinone match. Oh, by the way, the ‘Both to Score’ prop is +100 also towards “Yes”, and why wouldn’t you enjoy that too if you have the prop offered at your book? You should!

One of the two late matches I want to discuss is the Palermo vs Napoli game. The Total at a straight 3 is certainly juiced for a reason, and even if -120 or -115 is the price they are asking us to pay, what the hell is stopping you?

Palermo watches clubs play football, and it is almost funny to watch them just get dumped on so often because 11 guys stand around waiting for someone else to do something. Seriously ugly, and now on the verge of facing a possible relegation back to Serie B again. Remember, Palermo just got back to Serie A last season after spending a season in Serie B, and if this is the effort they plan on putting forward, we might just be seeing Pink again in second tier next year.

Anyway, take that Over 3, even if it is -120 and as high as -125 if need be, as there is still enough value there to just sit and watch Palermo give up 5 goals again.

I was thinking about discussing the Roma match with Udinese, but I don’t even want to get started on the Totti situation again. Did you like how Spalletti brought him in down 4 – 0 in a Champions League second leg this past Tuesday? Nope, not getting started.

Okay, so you have four plays for the Serie A weekend, so jump back to Friday in Serie B, and grab Brescia at home on the 0/PK Draw no Bet offer, as I see it is listed at -120 or -125 depending on the time and the site you use. Brescia is going to take out Crotone at home, as Brescia has pretty much done to everyone else except one club this campaign.

They should at least salvage a point against the league leaders, although Crotone is playing quite well themselves, and would love to create more space if they could. Crotone and Cagliari are almost assured of being in Serie A next season, barring a miracle breakdown from either club down the stretch.

So wrap it up with five plays this weekend with a Both to Score prop in there too.

Juventus -1.5 @ +115 for Friday
Empoli V Samp Over 2.5 @ +100 for Saturday
Carpi V Frosinone Over 2 & 2.5 @ +100
& the Both to Score Prop @ +100
for Sunday
Palermo V Napoli Over 3 @ -120
Brescia V Crotone – Brescia 0/Pk DNB @ -120 Serie B for Saturday

You can respond here, or refer to the forum, where I have started a thread for the weekend for other bets I may have, and/or any other conversation about the matches. Don’t forget that if you ask about Lega Pro and the three leagues in that tier, I usually throw some of that in too, so ask, and you will know what those are!
Link to Forum Post

In Bocca Al Lupo!

About EJ the Rainmaker

EJ Garr has been a freelance sports writer and handicapper for more than 20 years. He appeared as a featured writer in Beckett's Magazine for the 2014 World Cup. An experienced radio host, he also lends his voice to the radio shows on the Sports Palooza Radio Network, which includes a weekly segment dedicated to the NY Cosmos.

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