You never want to bet against four-time NBA MVP LeBron James. Except when it makes sense to do so … as anyone who picked “Golden State in four” last June can attest.
Odds on the 2018-19 NBA MVP were posted on BetDSI.com on Wednesday, and LeBron is the favorite at 4-1. Heck, when a guy has been to the NBA Finals eight straight times and has won this award four times, he is not a bad bet. Also, he has not won it in the past five seasons, which sort of makes him about as due for a triumph as Tiger Woods.
But here is the thing: A ton of sharp money is being wagered on the Lakers’ win total to come in under 49.5, which means the gamblers whose track records are impressive are not all that impressed with the rental lineup that Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka have assembled.
For what it’s worth, the roster on June 22 is not the same as the roster that will exist next March 1 after the NBA trade deadline has passed, and the number of regular season victories the Lakers accumulate is irrelevant in the bigger picture because what they are chasing is a championship.
If their win total makes the top eight in the Western Conference, that is good enough.
Here is a screenshot of the odds. Click on it to place a wager (and use Bonus Code BBALL1000 for a 100 percent matching bonus up to 1,000 USD.)
For what it is worth, Kyrie Irving at 25-1 seems like a nice bet. He may not be the best player in the Eastern Conference, but his Celtics team is loaded and he is in a contract year before he enters unrestricted free agency and tries to realize his dream of playing with the Knicks.
Irving has pushed that line of reasoning unsolicited, as Marc Berman of the New York Post noted in a recent podcast on this site.
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Let’s have a look at the NBA MVP favorites … along with a few of the longshots:
LeBron James, 4-1. The only person in human history who gets younger as he ages, James played all 82 games last season for the first time in his career. He averaged career-highs in defensive rebounds (7.5), assists (9.1) and turnovers (4.2). Playing alongside Rajon Rondo, he may be off the ball more than we’ve seen in the past.
Anthony Davis, 7-2. He lost a bunch of valuable teammates in the offseason, which might be bad for his team but good for his productivity stat-wise. Entering his seventh season, he has never played more than 75 games. Last season, he had career-highs in 3-pointers made (55) and percentage (.340), free throw percentage (.828), assists (2.3), blocks (2.6) and scoring (28.1).
Giannis Antetokounmpo, 4-1. The Greek Freak may very well be the best player in the Eastern Conference in the upcoming season, but will that translate into wins? Jabari Parker is out of the picture, which will mean more scoring opportunities. Coming off a season (his fifth in the NBA) in which he had career-highs in field goal percentage (.529), rebounds (10.0) and points per game 26.9. Note: The Bucks’ over/under win total has been set at 46.
James Harden, 5-1. The reigning NBA MVP will be looking to become the first back-to-back NBA MVP since Stephen Curry in 2015-’16. The Rockets are loaded again despite losing two of their best defenders, Trevor Ariza and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and the challenge for Harden will be to not try to take on too much of the burden all by himself (see Games 6 and 7 of the Western Conference finals last June).
Kawhi Leonard, 6-1. The key date for this guy is Feb. 7, which is the NBA trade deadline. The Raptors will be in Atlanta that afternoon, and Leonard and newly-hired Jeremy Castleberry, who worked with Leonard as a Spurs staffer and played with him in high school and at San Diego State, could be dealt as a package. It is too cold in Toronto for Leonard to be anything more than a rental, IMHO. I expect him to land in one of two cities: Los Angeles or New York.
Kevin Durant, 9 1/2-1. This could be his final season in Golden State, because he signed at a bit of a discount in order to get the option to leave. He is surrounded by such an extraordinary amount of talent (we can start with Curry and Draymond Green and Klay Thompson, and continue on to DeMarcus Cousins, etc.) that it is tough to see him putting up the kind of dominant numbers that merit MVP consideration. Then again, Curry did it twice before Durant got there.
Russell Westbrook, 9 1/2-1. A ton of sharp money is coming in on the Thunder to hit the over on their regular season win total number (49), and this is not a terrible wagering opportunity now that Carmelo Anthony has been removed from the mix. Westbrook has averaged triple-doubles the past two seasons, and his scoring average should jump closer to what is was two years ago (31.4) than what it was last season (25.4).
Joel Embiid (14-1). Not a crazy pick. If he can cool it down on Instagram, it’ll make life easier for everyone in Philly. The immaturity he has shown has occasionally been off the charts, but the kid is afraid of no one and will say so to anyone’s face. He will be unmasked this season, and although the Sixers will miss Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova, it will provide more scoring opportunities inside and outside for Ben Simmons’ running mate.
Stephen Curry, 15-1. Wants to be a Warrior “for life,” which is fantastic unless he gets too old to play basketball, which sometimes happens to guys. Only played 51 games last season, and his numbers dropped across the board compared to what he was doing in his back-to-back MVP seasons. Three years ago, he made 402 3-pointers. Last season, he made 212.
Kyrie Irving, 25-1. Attention sharps and sharp wannabees, this is probably the best bet on the board. The Celtics should have a win total in the 60s, and alpha players from teams that finish atop the conference usually do quite well with NBA MVP voters. The big question mark is his durability. He is recovering from knee surgery and a subsequent infection discovered on the metal wiring and screws in his knee. The infection was found and treated before it developed into a staph infection.
Other notables with longer odds:
Karl-Anthony Towns 45-1.
DeMar DeRozan and Donovan Mitchell, 55-1.
Paul George, LaMarcus Aldridge and Victor Oladipo, 90-1.
