Though Sony Michel was not the feature back for his college team, he has the skills to be a fantasy asset at the next level. The former Georgia Bulldog had moments of brilliance, including his game-winning performance against Oklahoma in the CFP Semifinal.
What he lacked in opportunity, he made up for in efficiency. He averaged eight yards per touch and scored 17 total touchdowns. Though he doesn’t have as much going for him as Saquon Barkley, he does share plenty in common with a certain 2017 rookie running back who did well for himself.
Reasons to Get Excited
The Next Alvin Kamara?
For one, they both played second fiddle to other backs in college. That didn’t stop either from making an impact. They also have an eerily similar build.
Sony Michel at 2018 Combine:
5'10 5/8"
214 lbs
9 1/8" hand sizeAlvin Kamara at 2017 Combine:
5'10 1/4"
214 lbs
9 1/4" hand size— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) February 28, 2018
It stands to reason Michel could get the Kamara treatment if he lands on a team with another established back. For example, imagine if he wound up with the Titans. Derrick Henry would get most of the touches, but Michel would get enough to be at least usable. Kamara was a fantasy stud despite not finishing near the top 10 in total touches. In the right situation, Michel could replicate that.
The Price
Michel is apart of a long list of backs in this class that scouts consider to be roughly 80 percent of Saquon Barkley. As such, there’s a case to be made for teams drafting in the top 10 passing on Barkley and picking someone from the next tier in the second through fourth rounds. The same logic applies in fantasy drafts.
Barkley is going to come with plenty of hype. He may get one-to-one comparisons with the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, though Barkley probably won’t have the offensive line Elliott had. If you want Barkley, things could get a little pricey. Even if Michel is in a better situation than Barkley, Michel will be cheaper. He may be the wiser target.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Receiving Numbers
Michel did wide receiver drills at the combine and appears to be a passable receiver. However, he doesn’t look to be on Kamara’s level in that regard.
Michel averaged 0.6 receptions per game as a senior. He caught nine passes in 15 games and four of them came in the aforementioned Oklahoma game. Kamara was 13th in the league with 81 receptions as a rookie. He added 826 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns. It’s unlikely Michel will duplicate those numbers in his first season.
Fumbles
Despite his numerous strengths, Michel’s fumbling issues are nearly the worst in this running back class.
Ronald Jones, Saquon Barkley and Kerryon Johnson all rank among the top-5 best in this class in fumble rate. Meanwhile, Sony Michel is second-worst.
Here are all the fumble rates for this crop of RB prospects: https://t.co/7WpXR3ENJX
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) February 12, 2018
This wouldn’t be a huge issue when it comes to fantasy points. Losing two points here and there would be a small price to pay for the elite per-play production Michel is capable of. The bigger problem will be how his coaching staff handles the fumbles if he doesn’t fix the problem.
More than a few coaches feel the need to glue running backs to the bench after a fumble. The Patriots and Lions are examples of teams who could use Michel that have a recent history of benching fumbling running backs. That would be a worst-case scenario for Michel owners, especially since there wouldn’t be much warning if his coaches decided to go that route.
Conclusion
Keep a close eye on where Michel ends up. Though he’s not the best running back in the draft, he could very well be the best value. Even without the perfect situation, he’d at least be a high-level handcuff worth stashing. Like Kamara, he could become a league-winning player if things go his way.
