Something very special could occur on Saturday afternoon in a place that is very rarely associated with college football quality, Las Cruces, New Mexico. This will form the dramatic centerpiece of the game and create the tension point on which people will base their predictions about this contest.
Details
Odds: Aggies -9.5
Date & Time: Saturday, December 2, 4:30 PM ET
Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
Broadcast: ESPN3
Reasons To Bet On The South Alabama Jaguars
The Jaguars are not the central focus here. USA (the University of South Alabama, not the United States of America…) is trying to play spoiler for a New Mexico State team which is trying to become bowl-eligible. South Alabama was an erratic team last year, but it was better than it was this season. South Alabama simply cannot find consistency, which is maddening, but just when a lot of people think the Jaguars are done, they play a surprisingly good game and remind observers that they have some talent – it just doesn’t show up all the time.
South Alabama’s hope lies in the possibility that New Mexico State will get very nervous and uptight about the possibility of playing in a bowl game. The Aggies are not used to this sort of pressure. They have not won at least five games in a season since 2004 and have not won more than five games in a season since 2002. This is very unfamiliar territory, and NMSU will take the field knowing that it has something to lose – a bowl trip. If things go wrong for New Mexico State early in the game, the anxiety and worry that come with the prospect of failure in an important moment could overwhelm the Aggies. This is not a game about the right tactics or a precise game plan. This is about pressure, and if anyone thinks New Mexico State will not be ready to handle the pressure, it makes all the sense in the world to pick South Alabama. The Jaguars will likely pounce on the opportunity if New Mexico State starts this game on shaky ground.
Reasons To Bet On The New Mexico State Aggies
New Mexico State has not made a bowl game since 1960, nearly 60 years. There is no guarantee that the team will earn a bowl bid should it win, but it is more likely than not. This would be one of the feel-good stories of the year for the Aggies and coach Doug Martin.
What adds to the power of the moment for New Mexico State is that the team will leave the Sun Belt Conference after this season and become an independent team in 2018. Idaho, another Sun Belt team, will leave the Football Bowl Subdivision after this season. New Mexico State will enter a much more uncertain reality as an independent, because the Sun Belt is the weakest of the 10 major college football conferences. Not having the structure of a conference schedule will probably work against NMSU’s chances of making a bowl game in the future. This is a moment the program hungers for. There will be a lot of enthusiasm among players. Having the game at home should help settle down the players a lot. Not having to play an elite opponent should also help.
Outlook
New Mexico State opened up as an 8.5-point favorite in this spot but the line has shifted around quite a bit. It has moved up all the way to -10 but has since come down to -9.5. As for the total, it opened up at 55 but has since dropped down to 53.5. The betting pressure throughout the week has been on the under so far.
New Mexico State hasn’t earned the right to think it will do things the easy way, but the energy of the crowd will keep the Aggies’ energy up. New Mexico State will wobble at times, but it will play with determination and resilience. South Alabama will cover, but New Mexico State will win outright.
Prediction: Jaguars +9.5
Click here to bet on the college football season right now. DSI has a full list of spreads, totals and props for every single game on the board. Get all of the latest lines that you need to get a piece of the action!
