The Southern Methodist Mustangs (0-11, 0-5) head to meet the Connecticut Huskies (2-9, 1-4) this week in a battle between two AAC teams who are struggling. The game will begin Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on the CBSSN.
In last week’s game, Connecticut struggled mightily against Memphis 41-10. Arkeel Newsome had a good performance running the ball in the loss, rushing for zero yards on zero carry. Geremy Davis had 62 yards on five catches. Southern Methodist had a rough game as well, getting dominated by Houston 35-9 in their matchup. Jeremiah Gaines had a solid game for the Mustangs, totaling two receptions for 76 yards and one TD.
Connecticut is a 10-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is 46 points. Heading into Week 15 of the college football season, the Huskies are 2-9 both Straight Up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS). In their five most recent matchups, the Huskies went 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. Connecticut has made opposing defenses pay as of late, averaging 116.2 rushing yards per game over the last five weeks, well over its season average of 95.2. Turning to the Huskies defense, a few key spots could be deciding factors this week. Don’t expect Southern Methodist to have much success throwing the ball against the Huskies. The Mustangs average 170.8 yards per game through the air, 113th in the land. On the special teams side, Southern Methodist may give up some big plays to the Huskies in the return game. The Mustangs have allowed 38.6 return yards per game on the road, making them one of the worst in Division I.
On the other side, the Mustangs head into Week 15 with records of 3-8 ATS and 0-11 SU. In the previous five games, Southern Methodist has a record of 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS as well. The Mustangs have really bolstered their run game. During the past five games, the Mustangs eclipsed their season average of 84.1 rushing yards per game with an average of 120.2 during that period.
Predictions: SU Winner – CONN, ATS Winner – CONN, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Southern Methodist’s last 10 games.
Connecticut is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games.
Southern Methodist is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
Connecticut is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games.
Southern Methodist is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games.
Connecticut is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
Southern Methodist is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
Connecticut is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games at home.
Southern Methodist is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern Methodist’s last 5 games on the road.
Southern Methodist is 0-2 SU when leading at the half this season. Connecticut is 2-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Southern Methodist is 0-1 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Connecticut is 2-0 SU when leading after three quarters.
Since the beginning of last season, both teams are just 4-9 SU against AAC opponents.
Based on overall FBS ratings, Connecticut holds the upper hand in the passing game. Its passing attack (ranked 109th in the nation) will face the 121st-ranked pass defense of Southern Methodist, while its 43rd-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 113th-ranked passing game of the Mustangs.
Connecticut also has an edge in the passing game when comparing just conference ratings. Its offensive passing attack (ranked ninth in the AAC) will face the 10th-ranked pass defense of Southern Methodist, while its fifth-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 10th-ranked passing game of the Mustangs.
The Connecticut rushing attack is ranked only 123rd nationally, while the Southern Methodist run defense is ranked 118th. The Mustangs rushing game is ranked just 124th, compared to the 60th-ranked run defense of the Huskies.
When analyzing just in-conference ranks, Connecticut seems to have the overall advantage in the run game. Its ninth-ranked rushing attack will face the 10th-ranked run defense of Southern Methodist, while its fifth-ranked run defense will look to contain the 10th-ranked rushing game of the Mustangs.
