Tottenham sit two points above 18th-placed West Ham after the Hammers fell 1-0 to Arsenal and Spurs were held 1-1 at home by already safe Leeds, the report says.
Per the report, Tottenham’s fate largely remains in their own hands following a recent resurgence that produced eight points from their last four games. The report says that if Tottenham beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and Everton in north London they will secure Premier League football next season.
West Ham travel to Newcastle on Sunday and, per the report, a win there would see them leapfrog Spurs. If that happens, De Zerbi’s side would need at least one point at Chelsea to rise out of the relegation zone again on goal difference, which the report says is 11 goals in Spurs’ favour. The report adds that if West Ham draw at Newcastle and Spurs draw at Chelsea, Tottenham would still hold a one-point advantage.
The report also notes that if West Ham lose to Newcastle, a single point from Spurs’ remaining two fixtures will almost certainly suffice because of their superior goal difference. The report flags the difficulty of Spurs’ run-in: Stamford Bridge, where they have only ever recorded one Premier League win, followed by a season finale against Everton at home, where they are yet to register a league win in 2026.
West Ham, the report says, do not control their own destiny. A controversially ruled-out late equaliser for Callum Wilson at Arsenal is highlighted as potentially season-defining, since that point might otherwise have tightened the finish. The report outlines several permutations in which West Ham could survive — including needing Spurs to fail to win both remaining games if West Ham draw at Newcastle, or relying on Spurs losing at Chelsea and again to Everton if West Ham lose at St James’ Park and then beat Leeds.
Opta’s model, per the report, significantly favours Tottenham, forecasting an 86.6% chance of survival for De Zerbi’s side. The report observes that no team has been relegated with 36 points or more since Newcastle in 2015-16, when they finished with 37.
