NBA Preview: The Spurs have an opportunity to advance to the Western Conference Finals with a win in Game 6 at Houston.
#2 San Antonio Spurs (68-25) at #3 Houston Rockets (61-31), Thursday, 8 p.m. EST
Line: Rockets -7. Total 213.
Series: Spurs lead 3-2.
Tony Parker is out for the season. Nenê Hilario is out for the season. Kawhi Leonard is questionable or probable for Game 6 depending on what website you look at.
The Spurs have won two games without Parker, while the Rockets have won one game without Nenê. Can the Spurs win any games without Leonard and Parker? San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich hopes he will not have to find out. However, if there is a coach who can win without Leonard and Parker, Popovich would be at the top of the list of coaching candidates to do so.
Some people are saying that San Antonio stole that Game 5 victory, while others are saying the Rockets gave it away. I think the Spurs just got lucky.
San Antonio did not play well in Game 5. The Spurs took bad shots at times, rushed shots at times and were tentative taking shots at other times. Pau Gasol does not look comfortable taking his mid-range shot. Leonard and Jonathan Simmons looked tentative at times shooting the ball. LaMarcus Aldridge was not shy about shooting the rock. However, he took too many fade-away jumpers and did not take advantage of his height advantage inside. Aldridge did not get his momentum going towards the basket often enough as he shot just 7-for-21 (33%) for the game.
Many of the talking heads on television were criticizing Houston coach Mike D’Antoni for only using seven players in Game 5. Four starters logged more than 40 minutes each. The consensus of the talking heads was that the Rockets were tired late in the game. They may be right. The Rockets shot 35% from the field and had 6 turnovers in the fourth quarter and overtime period. James Harden was 0-for-3 in overtime.
The Rockets did outperform the Spurs in many of the overall game categories. Houston shot 44.2% from the field, while the Spurs shot 40.8%. Both teams hit 33.3% from beyond the arc. However, the Rockets made 5 more three-pointers than San Antonio. The Rockets also had twice as many turnovers than the Spurs (16 to 8), although that is obviously not a positive for Houston.
I do not think it would be difficult for the Spurs to play better In Game 6 than they did in Game 5. Therefore, San Antonio has a very good chance to end this series Thursday night, whether Leonard plays or not. Coach Popovich is the master of making adjustments. However, Houston is a team that does not seem to be very keen on making adjustments. Nenê getting injured forced the small-ball decision by coach D’Antoni in Game 4.
The Rockets are not going to stray from their game plan. They are going to run and gun and shoot three-pointers. Houston is going to push the pace as fast as they can push it.
Harden is scoring 27.4 points per games, dishing out 10.2 assists per games while grabbing 5 rebounds per game in this series. Leonard is averaging 23.8 points per game, 5.8 assists per game and 9.8 rebounds per game in this series.
For Houston, Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Lou Williams and Clint Capela combined to score 35 points in Game 5. However, the Rockets will need a lot more from these four players to have any chance to win Game 6. Patrick Beverley and Ryan Anderson combined to score 39 points for the Rockets on Tuesday. They shot a combined 8-for-13 from beyond the arc in Game 5.
For the Spurs, Patty Mills, Danny Green and LaMarcus Aldridge combined for 54 points, while Manu Ginobli and Simmons combined to score 24 points in Game 5.
Due to the ankle injury of Kawhi Leonard, I am going to wait until I know his status for Game 6 before deciding to make a bet or not. If I have a play, I will post it on Twitter with my @brewers7 handle.
My postseason record: 15-5 (+$860).
My pick:
Pending.
Good luck.
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