Sunday, July 22, 2018
Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs Free Pick 04/16/18

The St. Louis Cardinals will head north to play their NL Central nemesis Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN and the opening pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs Odds

The Cardinals are 9-7 SU and have gone 9-6 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 0.6 units for moneyline gamblers this year, despite having gained 2.2 units ATS. St. Louis has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Cubs are 7-7 SU and 7-7 ATS. They’ve lost 5.2 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 0.2 units ATS. Chicago has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Cubs games have a 6-8 over/under record thus far in 2018. St. Louis has an over/under record of 7-8.

The Cardinals have lost 2.4 units and are 6-5 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in six of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Cubs have lost 4.2 units and are 4-5 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in four of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under.

Adam Wainwright will get the nod for the visiting Cardinals. The right-handed Wainwright is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA and seven strikeouts. He has yet to face Chicago this year, but he made three starts against the team in 2017, posting a 1-1 record with a 1.83 ERA and 12 strikeouts.

The Cubs are putting the ball in the right hand of Tyler Chatwood (0-2, 4.91 ERA), who has 11 strikeouts and seven walks this season as well as a 1.82 WHIP. Chatwood did not record a start against the Cardinals in 2017.

Chicago’s pitching staff has allowed 4.2 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 5.40, a WHIP of 1.65 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.7. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 2.09, a WHIP of 1.11 and a K/9 of 8.7. In eight games against divisional foes, Cubs starters have an ERA of 3.40 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.55.

The Chicago hitters have produced 5.1 runs per contest, including 4.9 per game against divisional foes and 6.6 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .269/.350/.474 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Cubs’ offense has been led by third baseman Kris Bryant and second baseman Javier Baez. Bryant is hitting .352/.493/.611 with 19 hits, eight RBIs and nine runs scored, and Baez’s line is .191/.309/.574 with nine hits, 14 RBIs and 11 runs.

For the visitors, St. Louis’ pitchers have allowed 3.5 runs per game and its starters own a 3.31 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.68 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.27, along with a WHIP of 1.25 and a K-per-9 of 9.63.

The Cardinals offense has slashed .244/.324/.412 on its way to 4.6 runs scored per game this year, including 5.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).

St. Louis’ offensive production been led by first baseman Jose Martinez and right fielder Tommy Pham. Martinez is hitting .364/.446/.600 with 20 hits, 15 RBIs and five runs scored, while Pham has a .322 average with 19 hits, two homers, five RBIs, 15 runs and five stolen bases.

Martinez did not do as well batting against righties on the road last season. Across 117 such plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .257/.333/.371 (his overall season line was .309/.379/.518).

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Cardinals, O/U – OVER


Betting Notes

Chicago has posted 22.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 25.4 over its last five.

The Cardinals have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including 10 over their last five.


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