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St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs Free Pick 07/21/18

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs will welcome the St. Louis Cardinals to Wrigley Field in Game 1 of a divisional doubleheader. The game gets underway 1:05 p.m. ET and WGN will be televising the action.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Odds

The Cubs are 56-39 straight up (SU) and 49-45 against the spread (ATS). The team’s gained 3.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 5.8 units (ATS). Chicago has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Cardinals have gone 49-47 SU this year and are 46-49 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 10.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.9 units ATS. St. Louis has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the total has gone over in six of those seven.

Chicago games have an over/under record of 44-49-1 thus far in 2018. Cardinals games have gone under 48 times, gone over 43 times and pushed on four occasions.

The right-handed Luke Weaver will get the start for the visiting Cardinals. Weaver is 5-8 with a 4.72 ERA and 96 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with five strikeouts and an 11.25 ERA against Chicago this year (two starts).

The Cubs are handing the ball to righty Tyler Chatwood (3-5, 5.04 ERA), who has 76 strikeouts and 73 walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 1.77. Chatwood is 0-1 with 12 strikeouts and a 5.19 ERA over two starts against St. Louis this year.

As a unit, Chicago’s pitchers have given up 4.1 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starting pitching staff has a 4.02 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.30 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 42 games against NL Central foes, Cubs starters have an ERA of 3.52 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.08.

The Chicago hitters have put up 5.2 runs per outing, including 4.5 per game against divisional foes and 7.4 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .304/.391/.475 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

The Cubs’ hitters have been led by second baseman Javier Baez and left fielder Albert Almora Jr.. Baez is slashing .289/.323/.559 with 19 home runs, 72 RBIs, 62 runs and 18 stolen bases, while Almora Jr.’s line is .319/.356/.436 with four homers, 28 RBIs and 48 runs.

For the visiting squad, St. Louis’ pitchers have allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starters own a 3.50 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.07 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.57, along with a K/9 of 8.54.

The Cardinals offense has slashed .248/.321/.408 on its way to 4.6 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

St. Louis’ offense has been powered by left fielder Marcell Ozuna and first baseman Jose Martinez. Ozuna is slashing .270/.312/.384 with 10 home runs, 51 RBIs and 39 runs scored, while Martinez is hitting .299/.365/.478 with 13 homers, 56 RBIs and 35 runs scored.

The Cardinals have lost 4.8 units and are 35-36 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 30 of those games, compared to 37 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Cubs have lost 4.8 units and are 35-36 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 33 of those games, as opposed to 37 that’ve cashed the under.

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Cardinals, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Trends

The over has cashed in six of St. Louis’ last seven games.

Chicago has recorded 25.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 29.4 over its last five.

The Cardinals have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games, including 10 over their last five.

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Written by GMS Previews

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