While the New York Mets are 2–8 in their last 10 games and in the midst of a three-game losing streak, the Los Angeles Dodgers are 9–1 in their last 10 games and riding a three-game winning streak. Needing a miracle to make the playoffs, the Mets are basically out of contention. On the other hand, the Dodgers continue to boast the best record and run differential in the league. These two ballclubs facing off Sunday night couldn’t have been any more different. With the Dodgers’ recent addition of Yu Darvish, they will look to lock up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. After winning the first two games of this three-game series, the Dodgers will look to sweep the Mets, just like they did with the Giants last week.
Details
Date – Sunday August 6th, 2017
Time – 8:00PM EST
Line – LAD -165
Why The Dodgers Might Win
Last week’s Dodgers pitcher for the Sunday night betting preview, Hyun-Jim Ryu, is scheduled to start again this week. While Ryu received a no-decision in the Dodgers 3–2 11-inning victory over the Madison Bumgarner and the Giants, Ryu will be facing a less formidable opponent tonight in Steven Matz. So far this year, Ryu is 3-6 with a 3.83 ERA, 4.60 FIP, and 1.37 WHIP. Ryu has allowed opponents to slash .276/.336/.488 while giving up 15 HRs in 84.2 IP, which translates to one HR allowed every 5.5 IP – undesirable at best. However, Ryu’s performance over the last two weeks has been encouraging – 1.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with no HRs allowed. In Ryu’s lone start against the Mets this year, the Dodgers won 6–3 while Ryu allowed two ERs in 5 IP.
The Mets’ offense has been struggling all year and if Ryu can put together a decent performance, the Dodgers should be able to add another win to their .709 winning percentage. We’re talking about a Mets team that has dropped eight of their last 10 and has really struggled at the plate. They have scored a total of just 15 runs in their last six losses, which amounts to barely over two runs per game.
Why The Mets Might Win
Aside from the potential of Steven Matz to pitch a good game, it’s tough to see the Mets winning this one. Having missed the first two months of the season, Matz hasn’t been himself since returning from the disabled list on June 10th. So far this year, Matz is 2–4 with a 5.50 ERA, 5.06 FIP, and 1.51 WHIP while allowing opponents to slash .308/.349/.523. Similar to Ryu, Matz has allowed 10 HRs in just 52.1 IP, which translates to one HR allowed every 5 IP. While Ryu’s performance over last two weeks have been uplifting, the same cannot be said for Matz. In the last two weeks, Matz has posted a 10.13 ERA and 2.13 WHIP while allowing two HRs in only 8 IP. In Matz’s only start against the Dodgers year, he compiled a quality start while going 6 IP and allowing 3 ERs. However, the Mets ended up losing that game 6–3. If Matz can repeat this performance, the Mets might have a chance to avoid a sweep.
Outlook
The Dodgers are rolling while the Mets are folding, with these two ballparks seemingly heading in complete opposite directions. Jay Bruce (3/8 with 2 HRs), Curtis Granderson (3/5 with 1 HR), and Asdrubal Cabrera (2/4 with 2 doubles) have had relative success against Ryu while the Dodgers haven’t faced Matz enough to provide a reliable sample size. Although Ryu has been hit hard in the past against three of the Mets’ batters, the 2017 season seems to belong to the Dodgers and they should end tomorrow night’s game with a sweep.
The price tag is definitely more than you’d want to pay but the challenge is that these are two teams heading in opposite directions. Believe it or not, the Dodgers opened at a higher price (-168) than this and the line has come down a little bit. That brings us close to what we’d want to pay and doesn’t make it sting as much in case they don’t come through for us. They’re the play here. Take them with your baseball betting picks.
Pick: LAD -155
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