The month of June is in the books, but it did not go by without a bang. MLB fans were treated to their fair share of offense, namely in the form of home runs. With Justin Smoak’s (Toronto Blue Jays) home run on Friday night, a new home run record was set for a single month in MLB history. Smoak’s home run was the 1,070th of the month of June and after Friday’s slate of games were finished, 1,101 home runs were recorded in June. Additionally, the 36 leadoff home runs in June were five more than any other calendar month in MLB history. However, with two aces on the mound in this Sunday night matchup, maybe we’ll see a reversal of the home run barrage in June.
Details
Date – Sunday July 2nd, 2017
Time – 8:00PM EST
Line – WSH -119
Why The Nationals Might Win
The Nationals’ ace, Max Scherzer, is on the mound for this highly anticipated matchup. Scherzer is having a lights out year, leading the MLB with a 2.06 ERA and a ridiculous 0.78 WHIP, while tied for the league lead with a 4.3 WAR and second only behind Chris Sale (Boston Red Sox) in strikeouts with 151. Scherzer has been nearly unhittable – opponents have posted a ghastly .164/.227/.292 slash line against Scherzer. Scherzer’s elite K/9 rate of 12.0 coupled with his excellent command (only 24 walks allowed in 113.2 innings pitched) should have the Cardinals worried. Over the last month, Scherzer has been even better – 0.99 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 51 Ks, 36.1 IP – while allowing opponents to slash .114/.187/.195. Additionally, Scherzer has been even better on the road than at home – 1.62 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 86 Ks, 66.2 IP – while compiling a 6-2 record and allowing opponents to slash .146/.215/.274. To make things even scarier, Scherzer has recorded seven straight quality starts leading up to this matchup. The Cardinals would be lucky to tack on even one or two runs against Scherzer given how dominant he’s been.
Why The Cardinals Might Win
One thing that the Cardinals have going for them is that their ace, Carlos Martinez, will be on the mound for this matchup. Although Martinez’s numbers are not nearly as eye-popping as Scherzer’s, he’s able to hold his own ground as well. Martinez’s numbers across the board have been exceptional this year – 2.88 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 121 Ks, 38 BB, 10.2 K/9, 106.1 IP. Opponents have slashed a measly .199/.275/.325 against Martinez this year.
It’s worth noting that Martinez has been significantly better at home than on the road this season. He is 4-1 at home with a 1.85 ERA and opponents are batting just .174 against him. On the road, his record is 2-5 and his ERA jumps to 4.13 while opponents hit .229 against him. The main difference for him has been home runs as he’s given up just three homers in 58.1 innings of work at home compared to seven in just 48.0 innings of work on the road.
If pitching against anyone other than Scherzer, the Cardinals might be feeling better about their chances. Like Scherzer, Martinez has pitched better in the last month as well – 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 41 Ks, 11.1 K/9, 33.1 IP – while allowing opponents to slash .191/.266/.296. Additionally, Martinez has also earned four straight quality starts leading up to this matchup. In order for the Cardinals to have a chance, their offense must show up.
Outlook
The Nationals still sit comfortably atop the NL East while the Cardinals are three games under .500, although they are only 3.5 games back of the NL Central lead. Both teams have their aces on the mound for this matchup, although Scherzer is clearly having a much more dominant season. The Nationals’ +88 run differential speaks to their success so far to date. The only Achilles heel in this matchup might be the Nationals’ bullpen. However, based on Scherzer’s overall and recent successes this season, it would be difficult to bet against him.
You might also want to consider betting the under in this spot. The Cards offense is just so-so and they’re going up against one of the best in the big leagues. Meanwhile, Martinez has been nearly untouchable at home this season. It’s a low number but under might be the right play here with two studs on the mound.
Pick: Under 8
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