Let’s not kid ourselves. The New England Patriots are a mortal team, just like every other in the NFL. While they have won five Super Bowls, their first three are hardly without scrutiny as any NFL fan outside of the Boston metropolitan area will gladly attest. In their five Super Bowl appearances since SpyGate blew up, they’re 2-3 and should be 0-5. If Pete Carroll had called a run play with Marshawn Lynch in Super Bowl XLIX, that game wraps up on the side of the angels. All the Atlanta Falcons had to do is not try to run up the score with Kyle Shanahan’s hubris, kick a field goal in the fourth quarter and we’re comparing the 2010s Patriots to the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings.
The strength of the Patriots and Bill Belichick post SpyGate is as simple as “Don’t do anything stupid. Make the other team screw up.” When the other team doesn’t step on its own feet, they win. It’s what made last year’s Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles not even close.
Still, make no mistake, Tom Brady is still great. Belichick is still the best in the business and there’s no reason to be surprised at all if they Patriots hoist a sixth Vince Lombardi Trophy on Sunday night. But here’s why I think they won’t.
Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers and Ndamukong Suh
The Rams have the best individual player in the league in Donald and bookend him with two other pretty decent guys in Brockers and Suh. In the Super Bowls the Patriots have lost, it’s been pressure in Brady’s face that’s led to it. Whether it be the loving caresses from Justin Tuck in two New York Giants’ victories or the careful embrace of Fletcher Cox in last year’s championship game, a guy in Brady’s face is a real problem. Donald is better than both of them.
Of course, Belichick and Josh McDaniels know this ahead of time and will do all they can to try to slow Donald down. Good luck with that. He’s been double teamed 70 percent of the time this season and still led the league with 20.5 sacks. If they do go all-in on Donald, that leaves Suh and Brockers free and it just so happens that Suh has been on fire in the playoffs.
Todd Gurley
Gurley shared the workload with C.J. Anderson in the Rams’ divisional round victory over the Dallas Cowboys. He was less of a factor in the NFC Championship, but still scored a touchdown. This might look like a problem for the Rams, but what it really did was open up opportunities for other guys to make plays. Since L.A. won, they obviously did. Now Belichick has to pick what he wants to take away and, if Gurley isn’t that choice, then he could be in for a big day.
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New England will do everything it can to limit big, downfield plays. That means plenty of dump-offs to Gurley underneath. The Rams offensive line is more than eager to get in there to block for both Gurley and Anderson and the Patriots will see plenty of both of them all day. If they focus too much on guarding Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods deep (and the should), Gurley should see plenty of work and be an MVP candidate before the game is over.
Sean McVay
It’s no secret as to why the Rams have turned around their moribund franchise over the last two seasons; Sean McVay. McVay has been so successful in his playcalling and coaching that every team that fires its coach is looking for the “next Sean McVay,” consistently raiding his coaching staff to find him. Belichick is a gameplan master, but McVay has had two weeks to put together his own strategy for this game. He’s seen the tape on how New England was able to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC title game. He’s got this figured out. If the Rams execute it, they’ll win.
