NCAAF Picks: The Missouri Tigers can earn a second consecutive berth in the SEC Championship Game with a do or die Senior Day home win this Friday. Brett Bielema has done wonders in his two seasons on the job with the Arkansas Razorbacks as he has fundamentally transformed the program. Bielema has turned a soft finesse program into a powerful downhill running squad that is tough as nails.
The Missouri Tigers will host the Arkansas Razorbacks at Farout Field on Friday with coverage on CBS starting at 2:30 PM ET.
Profit Hogs
Arkansas is 6-5 straight up, 9-2 against the spread, and 6-5 over the total. The Hogs are coming off four consecutive payouts and two consecutive shutout wins. Last week Arkansas enjoyed a 30-0 home payout over Ole Miss. Arkansas’ power running game is led by Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins, who are both over 5.5 yards per carry. QB Brandon Allen has been a good game manager with a 131.2 QB rating and 16-5 TD-INT ratio. Arkansas is a program on the rise but faces a daunting challenge at Farout Field against a Mizzou team playing with everything on the line.
In the Black Friday?
Missouri is 9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS, and 4-6-1 under the total. Mizzou has won five games in a row with three consecutive covers. The Tigers are coming off a 29-21 payout at Tennessee to set up this opportunity for the SEC East Division title. Mizzou has had to overcome an offense that ranks 104th overall nationally. The defense has been the bedrock of the team and ranks 17th for points allowed. QB Maty Mauk has a 118.5 QB rating with a 19-10 TD-INT ratio. While Mauk does not have great numbers but has proven to be a clutch performer that rises to the occasion when it matters most. Missouri has shown toughness and resiliency under head coach Gary Pinkel while exceeding expectations as third year members of the SEC.
Matchup and Pick
Among the many areas of improvement that Arkansas has shown is as a betting value on the road. The Razorbacks have come away with the cash in five out of their last six away games with 14 out of their last 20 away games going over the total.
Mizzou has been a solid betting value at Farout Field with nine payouts in their last 15 home games. The Tigers have gone under the total in 10 out of their last 13 away games.
This is the first meeting between the Hogs and Tigers since Mizzou joined the SEC. The Tigers and Razorbacks are beginning a new border rivalry series with this game.
Mizzou gets the call.
