Did you know that Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan played their last seasons the same year? No, this is not a trivia question, but an illustration of what’s a media darling and what a silent star is. The San Antonio Spurs have mastered creating – or drafting – generational talent that shies away from the camera, holds only minor appeal to the fans, doesn’t have more Twitter followers than you and I, and impacts the game on the court in ways beyond the fantasy NBA board. One of those is certainly Tim Duncan, but the Spurs latest protege is Kawhi Leonard.
NBA world, fans, punters, and players, please welcome back Kawhi Leonard, who finally returned to play after missing the first 27 games of the season with an unusual quadriceps injury. The Spurs lost in Dallas on Tuesday night, spoiling his 16-minute season debut, but this is a player that will have a large impact on his team, and on the league with his two-way contribution as soon as he shakes off the rust and the minutes restriction. Remember, this is the player that came down with an ankle injury in the conference finals, while his team led the eventual champions by 21 points in Game 1, a series that he would miss and the Spurs got swept. This is a former Finals MVP, two-time Defensive Player of the Year, and one of the three players considered for a regular season MVP award last season. Many probably still feel that he should have won it, too, and Vegas installed him as the preseason, co-favorite with LeBron James to win the 2018 MVP at +400.
The scary thing is, Kawhi Leonard managed to improve his game with each passing season. Missed preseason and injury-forced actions might have slowed this process down, but he might return better than ever.
While he was gone
In his absence, the Spurs have held their ground, winning 19 games and firmly holding onto a superb third place in the Western Conference standings. They’ve seen Parker make a return of his own, and Kyle Anderson – a versatile wing subbing in for Leonard – going down with a knee injury. They’ve changed the concept, playing off of LaMarcus Aldridge – a player resurrecting his All-Star days – so they’ll have to tinker their offensive schemes once again, to keep the big man happy and involved while making Leonard their focal point once again. The good news is, if anyone can do it, it’s coach Popovich.
Defensively, the Spurs have done extremely well. Kawhi Leonard is a premier defender, probably among the top two or three in the league, but he focused on generating more impact on the offense last year, so his defensive numbers didn’t stand out all that much. Still, having him play with already the stingiest defense in the league is a nightmare for the opposition, especially top wing players around.
Immediate impact
While it’s great to see him back again, don’t jump on the Spurs right away. They’ve played this entire situation with three pairs of gloves, and won’t be rushing him back no matter how eager he is to play. Popovich understands that Kawhi’s the Spurs core, and won’t risk him in December. Leonard was given three 5-minute stints at the beginnings of the first three quarters in Dallas, and this will continue in the next weeks.
Leonard looked fairly good and was frustrated not to play in the decisive fourth quarter, but still needs his stamina back, and the Spurs will gradually and patiently build it. We’ve seen it with Parker – it took seven games for him to eclipse 20 minutes. The players can impact games in limited time, and Kawhi Leonard looks poised to make the best of the allowance, but even with him being an underrated superstar, the market will likely over-adjust in this first part of having him back. His return gives the Spurs another rotation player for the moment, not more, and the veteran team is unlikely to be inspired by the fact they got him back. Punters should fade the Spurs early, but not for too long as the San Antonio team will become better with each passing day.
Individual and team futures
James Harden and LeBron James have already run away from the pack with the MVP award. If someone would join them and make it a three-way race, it’s unlikely that it’s going to be Kawhi Leonard. He missed 27 games and will be limited to 5-10 more, so even with the current +2,000 odds, this isn’t a good deal to take. Only one player missed more than 20 games and was named MVP, and this was 40 years ago.
Given that the Spurs have fared so well in his absence also diminishes his chances of the individual recognition, but makes things interesting in the West. Even with the loss in Dallas, they are just a few games back on the Warriors. The Rockets are further in front, but it’s still a long season ahead. The Spurs are currently way behind the 60-win season that would likely be required to win the conference, but with +885 odds, it doesn’t seem like an unrealistic bet to take a swipe at.
The odds to win NBA title are a different story. The books already knew that Leonard will return at some point in the first half of the season and that it’ll give enough time for the Spurs to oil up the machine come playoffs, so his absence had a very little impact on this future. Surpassed only by the Boston Celtics, the Spurs are now the fifth-most likely team to go all the way, with +1400 odds – only slightly better than the +1575 they’ve started this season with.
In the long term, the Spurs will likely return to the same level they were at in the last season. They were winning by 7.2 points on average, and are only at +3.6 at this point. Other factors play the part in the difference, of course, so it would be wrong to even it with Leonard’s value to the Spurs, but it wouldn’t be much of a stretch to expect the Spurs ending the season at about +6.0 points – a winning margin that is expected to translate to about 55 wins, right on the preseason Spurs’ win total expectation.
