Southeastern foes will lock horns when the Alabama Crimson Tide (16-9) take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (11-14) at Coleman Coliseum. Action gets underway at 2:30 pm ET on Saturday, Feb. 20 and can be seen on SEC and ES3.
The Crimson Tide beat LSU 76-69 on Wednesday. Retin Obasohan was the game’s high scorer with 35 points on 11-for-18 shooting. The Bulldogs are coming off a 75-74 win over Vanderbilt on Tuesday. Quinndary Weatherspoon shot 6 for 12 and led in scoring with 24 points.
Over the last five games, Obasohan has been playing at a high level for the Crimson Tide. During that stretch, he has averaged 21.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.4 three-pointers.
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Crimson Tide won the first game 82-80. Gavin Ware had a standout performance with 28 points, six rebounds, one assist, and two steals in the loss.
The Crimson Tide enter the game with records of 16-9 Straight Up (SU) and 15-9 Against The Spread (ATS). The Crimson Tide have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 75.3 points during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 67.8 points per game. Alabama’s defense has fallen apart in the past 10 games. Its average points allowed per game rose to 74.0 during that span, compared to its 67.1 season average. An area where the Crimson Tide are particularly strong is shot blocking, where they average 5.1 blocks per game, 34th in Division I.
On the other side, the Bulldogs have records of 13-10 ATS and 11-14 SU. Mississippi State has done particularly well ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 7-3.
The Crimson Tide’s win over Mississippi State in their last game moved their SU record against Mississippi State to 8-2 over their most recent meetings. The Crimson Tide also hold the advantage ATS with a record of 7-3. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Alabama held the edge in all three of these categories two times in the last five meetings. Mississippi State never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – MissSt, ATS Winner – MissSt
Notes
“Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games “.
“Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games “.
“The total has gone OVER in 4 of Alabama’s last 6 games “.
“Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home”.
“Alabama is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Alabama’s last 5 games at home”.
“Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Mississippi State”.
“Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Mississippi State”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Alabama’s last 7 games when playing Mississippi State”.
“Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Mississippi State”.
Mississippi State averages 75.8 points per game, placing the team just 101st in the nation. Alabama ranks 62nd in points allowed, giving up 67.1 points per game.
In its last game, Mississippi State won by a margin of one point. Alabama is 5-1 in games decided by a margin of three points or less. Mississippi State has a 1-4 record in close games.
Alabama has an average field goal percentage of 42.9%. Mississippi State is a subpar 5-13 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Alabama Crimson Tide rank lower for their field goal percentage (241st) than they do for their effective field goal percentage (189th), but the Mississippi State Bulldogs have a better FG% ranking (85th) than eFG% ranking (108th).
Alabama ranks 34th in blocks per game with 5.1 and Mississippi State ranks 65th with 4.5 blocks per game.
On average, Mississippi State forces a turnover rate of 18.3%. When Alabama turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 13-7 record.
