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Why The Pelicans Will Regress In 2015-16

Anthony Davis and the Pelicans may have hit their ceiling this year.

The New Orleans Pelicans took a major step forward as a playoff team in 2015 and if it wasn’t for an opening round matchup with one of the most dominant teams in recent history, they might have also added a postseason win to their list of accomplishments for this season.

Anchored by one of the most dominant players in the NBA, it would appear as though the Pelicans are a franchise on the rise but there is still reason for caution when looking forward to next season. They are in a tight spot and might not be able to take the next step.

Eric Gordon’s Salary

Anthony Davis was undoubtedly the Pelicans MVP but in terms of the best supporting player, there is some debate about who deserves that label. Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson were all very good during the regular season while Eric Gordon was easily the team’s second-best player in their playoff series against the Golden State Warriors. However, there is a very big problem with Gordon looking forward to next season not because of his production but because of his price point. Gordon is set to make more money than any other player on the New Orleans roster next season – including Davis – with a $15.5 million salary for 2015-16. That has to be a major concern for management. Gordon’s contract will come off the books by the time that the Pelicans have to pay Davis max money in 2016-17 but with the former is set to earn such a bloated salary next season it will severely hinder their salary cap situation.

Free Agency Exits

Gordon’s inflated salary number means that management will have some tough decisions to make when it comes to whether or not to bring back players like Omer Asik, Norris Cole and Alexis Ajinca with all three of those players set to become free agents this summer. Cole in particular was a valuable player coming off the bench after he was acquired by New Orleans this season while Asik started 76 games and Ajinca played well in 68 appearances. The Pelicans won’t be able to bring all three back and depending on how they play, the free agency period their depth could take a major hit.

No First Round Picks

A lack of cap space to sign free agents is one major reason why the depth of the New Orleans roster will suffer but the other is just as important because the Pelicans don’t have a first round pick. New Orleans traded that pick to the Houston Rockets in order to acquire Asik and while the pick is protected on the front end and the back end of the draft, at the time of the trade last summer, their position as the eighth seed in the Western Conference left them unprotected as it fell just outside of No. 1-3 and 20-30. Barring any trades, the Pelicans won’t pick until the second round and considering they could lose Asik as well, that is not a position that management is looking forward to being in.

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Thunder Will Rise Again

As if the internal issues that the team will have to deal with weren’t enough, there will also be the looming threat of the Oklahoma City Thunder bouncing back with Kevin Durant back healthy, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka in the fold, a new head coach and potentially one or two key depth players they could add this summer. The Thunder’s championship window might be a lot smaller than most would have projected even a couple of years ago and after last season’s letdown, mainly due to injuries, it is clear that Oklahoma City will take a much more aggressive approach to this season as they look to make a return to the playoffs. That means they’ll possibly help push the Pelicans down in the Western Conference standings as one more reason to expect New Orleans to regress in 2015-16.

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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