At this time last year, Sammy Watkins was a member of the Buffalo Bills. After an August trade to the Los Angeles Rams and a brief stint as a free agent, he has his third home in the last calendar year.
.@Chiefs to sign WR @sammywatkins to a three-year deal: https://t.co/Fms4DnTgb2 (via @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/gumG0trpAL
— NFL (@NFL) March 13, 2018
The latest and greatest addition to the Kansas City Chiefs‘ receiving corps will surely be the subject of preseason hype over the next several months. Unfortunately, that is the story of Watkins’ career so far. For every reason we have to believe in him, there’s another reason to run away.
Reasons to Get Excited
Potentially Explosive Offense
On paper, the Chiefs could have a frightening offense. Their 2017 first round pick, Patrick Mahomes, will take over at quarterback. Watkins joins Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill as Mahomes’ top targets, along with Kareem Hunt. With so many weapons, opposing defenses won’t be able to focus solely on Watkins. That’s a luxury he has rarely enjoyed as a pro, and certainly never to this degree.
Big Play Threat
Since Watkins’ rookie year in 2014, he has been one of the leading wide receivers in yards per reception. Over the last four seasons, he is eighth in yards per reception (15.9) among wide receivers with more than 50 total receptions. Of the 20 receivers who averaged more than 15 yards per reception, he has the most touchdowns (25) and the fourth-most yards (3,052). He could have a big game at any time.
Red Zone
Watkins tied for fourth in red zone touchdowns (seven) in 2017. Of the 26 players with five red zone touchdowns or more, Watkins had the fewest targets (10). All seven of his red zone receptions were touchdowns. The combination of Watkins and Kelce in the red zone could be unstoppable, with the two equally likely to put up monster numbers.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Target Competition
The counter-argument to “they can’t double-team Watkins!” is the potential lack of targets. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Kansas City and they could cancel each other out. Though Watkins’ big-play ability somewhat negates his need for targets, he could have plenty of unusable weeks.
OC Change
Former offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is the new head coach in Chicago. Replacing him is Eric Bieniemy, a former running back who is going to be an NFL offensive coordinator for the first time. Andy Reid may or may not be calling the plays, but if it’s Bieniemy, that could be a problem.
Mahomes
The Chiefs are obviously high on Mahomes, seeing as they traded up to take him in the 2017 draft. But he only has one NFL start and that was in Week 17 when the Chiefs were resting all of their starters. Since we haven’t seen it, we have no way of knowing if Mahomes will be comparable to the recently departed Alex Smith. Bad quarterback play is almost always a death sentence for fantasy wide receivers. For all we know, Mahomes is a bad quarterback.
The History of Owning Watkins
How many people have owned Watkins in the past and were pleased with the experience?
Sammy Watkins is basically a human Ponzi scheme, he has cost teams two 1st round picks, a 2nd, a 4th, and ~$70m, and no investors have been paid back
— DRAFT (@PlayDraft) March 13, 2018
Watkins’ injury history is too long to list here. His stats include one 1,000-yard season and one 16-game season. His final receiver ranking among in non-PPR leagues from 2014-2017: 25th, 15th, 87th, 33rd. Because of his draft status, Watkins has a WR1 reputation. Unfortunately, he has a WR2 or WR3 résumé.
Conclusion
Watkins could be an excellent fantasy asset depending on your team’s roster construction. He’s a risky, high-ceiling/low-floor player in the same vein as DeSean Jackson. If the rest of your team has safe, reliable players, it’s worth taking a shot on Watkins as a second receiver. He would also be a fine third receiver regardless of who else is on the team. But because of his name value and the looming Kansas City hype, he may come off the board much earlier. If history is any indication, that would be a mistake.
