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Tennis Picks: ATP Aegon Championships First Round

The ATP’s tournament at Queen’s Club in suburban London starts off with the first round and so do our tennis picks. A lot of matches were rained out on Monday, creating an especially packed order of play for Tuesday. The expected start times of matches might be moved around, but the three matches on this part of the card are all scheduled to start no earlier than 7:30 Pacific time, 3:30 in London. You’ll see that two of these matches are more like quarterfinal matches than first-round matches.

Gilles Simon vs. Kyle Edmund

There is not a lot of sizzle in this match. Simon and Edmund are not known for doing well on grass in their careers. Simon is a skilled player, but grass is not his surface. Edmund simply isn’t as talented or as capable as Simon. What would recommend a choice on either player? Simon actually overperformed at Wimbledon last year. He whipped Tomas Berdych and handled Gael Monfils to make the quarterfinals for the first time in his Wimbledon career. Even though no one should expect him to do really well at Wimbledon, the act of playing a comparatively mediocre British player should give Simon all the target practice he needs. Solid on his groundstrokes and better able to handle uncertain (weather-based) situations, Simon should be able to take control of this match and not let go. Go with Simon for your tennis picks here.

Pick: Simon in straight sets

Milos Raonic vs. Nick Kyrgios

This should be a dazzling match. It’s hard to believe this is a first-round battle, but in a 32-player tournament, Kyrgios is outside the top eight, so it was possible for the draw to put Raonic, a seeded player, along with Kyrgios. You should see a ton of aces and a lot more service winners. It is hard to think that you won’t see at least one tiebreaker in this match, if not two. A pair of years ago, at the 2014 Wimbledon Championships, Raonic beat Kyrgios in the quarterfinals and made his first (and only) Grand Slam semifinal. Kyrgios wants revenge, but that’s not the best reason to pick him. The best reason to pick Kyrgios is that he’s improving as a player. He’s clearly enjoyed the best season of his young ATP career. He’s figuring out how to deal with pressure. He’s moving across the court better, and he’s generally getting closer to becoming the kind of player he hopes to be. Raonic isn’t failing in this process, but injuries have held him back and, instructively, robbed him of the rhythm every good server craves. This match could go either way, but Kyrgios has more forward momentum at the time. Take Kyrgios with your tennis picks in this spot.

Pick: Kyrgios in three sets

John Isner vs. Juan Martin del Potro

This is a matchup in which more aces, service winners and tiebreakers should be found. Both of these guys rely on their big serves and big groundstrokes. Needless to say, both are happy to see the clay court part of the season behind them and they’ll both be even happier when we get to the time of the hard courts. Isner was just 5-5 on the clay courts this season and he’s only been above .500 on clay in three of the last nine years. As for the grass, he is already 2-0 this season and has been above .500 in six straight seasons.

Del Potro advanced to the semifinals in Stuttgart, Germany, last weekend, but he has faded since winning the U.S. Open years ago. He’s now the 166th ranked tennis player in the world. He hasn’t played on grass in either of the last two seasons but is 3-1 on grass this year. This is normally a strong suit for him as he’s won 23-7 in his last 30 grass court matches. He might be a little tired from that tournament as he moves to Queens but he should still get the job done. Take Del Potro with your tennis picks.

Pick: Isner in three sets

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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