The Appalachian State Mountaineers and the Toledo Rockets meet up in Montgomery, Alabama to finish off their productive seasons in the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl. The game is set to begin on Saturday, December 17th at 5:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on the ESPN Network. Coming into this match-up, the Rockets are a slight -1.5 point favorite and the games total is set at 57.5.
The Rockets came within a victory of playing for the MAC championship and had a great season under first-year coach Jason Candle. Candle was promoted from offensive coordinator to head coach at the start of the 2016 campaign.
Toledo (9-3):
One things for sure, quarterback Logan Woodside’s familiarity with the offense paid dividends for Jason Candle’s first season at the helm. In fact, Woodside quietly became one of the nation’s most underrated signal-callers.
When all was said and done, the senior gunslinger had completed just over 270 passes for almost 3,900 yards with 43 scores and only nine picks. Those stats were good enough for Logan Woodside to place his offense at 4th in the nation, averaging 529.8 yards per contest.
Even with the outstanding productivity in the passing game, Toledo prefers to tote the rock via the run first. When they move the ball over the ground, the Rockets have Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson to get the job done. As a duo, they have carried the ball for over 350 times for 1,983 yards and 12 scores. Hunt also produces in the passing game, catching 39 passes for 377 yards and a score.
Logan Woodside likes to distribute the ball evenly down the field. Four wide outs have caught more than 40 passes and all have scored multiple touchdowns. Cody Thompson leads this group of talented wide outs with 1,170 yards and 10 trips to the back of the end zone. Tight end Michael Roberts is Woodside’s favorite red zone target, catching 39 balls for a team-high 15 scores.
The offense’s success has surely helped take some pressure off of Toledo’s defense. The Rockets give way to 25.2 points a game (49th) and 394.9 yards per contest (55th). The defense is as average as it gets, but that has been enough for the amount of offense that Toledo produces.
Appalachian State (9-3):
The Mountaineers are a defensive minded team that finished off their season winning eight of their last nine contests. As a result, Toledo shared a piece of the Sun Belt Conference title and are playing in their second straight bowl appearance in just the third season in the college football big leagues.
Junior quarterback Taylor Lamb may not have the big numbers that Logan Woodside has to show for his work, but he has been an effective leader. Through the air, Lamb has completed over 180 passes for 2,162 yards with 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The versatile man-under-center also runs the ball well, tallying 379 yards on 80 runs and another eight trips to pay-dirt.
Appalachian State likes to keep things simple and grind out their yardage through the running attack. Two solid tail backs take care of the business end of that philosophy for the Mountaineers.
Combined, Jalin Moore and Marcus cox have rumbled for over 2,200 yards and 18 runs to glory. These numbers are a little skewed, because their 2016 starter Marcus Cox acquired the injury bug in the early part of the season.
Like Logan Woodside, Taylor Lamb likes to find different wide outs to move the chains. Four receivers have pitched-in for just under 100 catches that went for just under 1,400 yards and seven scores. Shaedon Meadors leads this group with 43 grabs for 698 yards and two touchdowns.
The Mountaineers allow only 4.86 yards per play, which is tied for 13th in the country. Appalachian State also allowed 20 points or fewer nine times this season. It’s a pick your poison scenario with this group of eleven, as the Mountaineers are 30th in the country against the pass and 23rd against the run. Two of their defeats came against the Vols and the Hurricanes. Both Tennessee and Miami were both were ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time.
Trends and Notes:
The Mountaineers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.
The Rockets are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
The Under is 7-3 in the Mountaineers last 10 non-conference games.
The Under is 4-1-1 in the Rockets last 6 games overall.
The Camellia Bowl has hosted only two bowl games since its induction in 2014. Both games were decide by a combined seven points.
Appalachian State won last year’s 2015 Camellia Bowl over Ohio 31-29.
Game Predictions:
Both senior laden squads will have a chance to out winners in this year’s addition of the Camellia bowl. Toledo brings the offensive punch and the Mountaineers handle their business on the defensive side of the ball.
Odds-makers have this contest at a 1.5 spread, which makes complete sense to me. This must-see game is truly a toss up. Vegas also has the game’s total at 57.5 and that seems like the way to go in this one as an overtime affair wouldn’t surprise me.
Toledo will find away to score in the high 20’s and Appalachian State should do the same. Combine the two and your chance of hitting the over is a little better than calling the winner. Take the over 57.5 and watch what could be the most competitive game of the bowl season.
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