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Week 3 Free ATS Pick – Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Tennessee Titans (+7) are set to pay a visit to the Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) at EverBank Field. CBS will broadcast the action and this AFC South game is scheduled to get underway at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview

The Titans enter into this Sunday AFC game as the underdog and are currently getting 7 points. The Titans are also receiving +220 moneyline odds while the Jaguars are -260. If one team can get out in front early it will create a nice betting scenario in-game. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 39.5 points.

The Titans have gained 0.2 units so far and are 1-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 1-1. The Jaguars have gained 2.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-0 ATS and also have an O/U record of 1-1.

The Titans have gone 1-1 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against AFC South opponents. The Jaguars are 2-0 SU overall and 0-0 SU against divisional foes.

The Titans just got a 20-17 win over Houston in Week 2 where Blaine Gabbert completed 13-of-20 passes for only 117 yards and one touchdown. Derrick Henry (just 56 yards on 18 rush attempts) and Dion Lewis (42 yards on 14 carries) led the ground attack while Corey Davis (five receptions, 55 yards) and Taywan Taylor (three catches, 32 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties in the win.

Jacksonville just got a 31-20 win over New England a week ago. Blake Bortles completed 29-of-45 passes for 377 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. T.J. Yeldon (58 yards on 10 rush attempts) mounted the running attack while Keelan Cole (seven receptions, 116 yards, one TD) and Corey Grant (six catches, 56 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

Tennessee has run the ball on 51.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Jacksonville has a rush percentage of 40.0 percent. The Titans have run for 108 yards/game (including 100 per game versus South opponents) and have just a single score on the ground this year. The Jags are logging 121 rush yards per game and have yet to record a rushing TD.

It seems like the Jags should have an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has generated 4.6 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 4.2 to opponents. The Titans have registered 3.4 yards per carry while allowing 4.9 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Titans offense has averaged 206 yards in the air overall (191 per game against conference opposition) and has two passing TD so far. The Jags have put up 277 pass yards per contest and have five total pass score.

Defensively, Tennessee has allowed opponents to run for an average of 134 yards and throw for 270 yards per game. The Jacksonville D has given up 229.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 98.0 yards per game on the ground. The Jags are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.59 to opponents, while the Titans have given up a 7.02 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Gabbert is up to 117 yards this year. The signal-caller has completed 65 percent of his 20 attempts with one scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. Gabbert has a 6.14 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.67 over the last two outings.

The Titans will probably try to control the clock by feeding their running backs early and often. Along with Corey Davis (55 yards), Dion Lewis (42 rush yards, one receiving yards) and Derrick Henry (56 rush yards) have really been focal points in the Tennessee offensive scheme.

Blake Bortles has completed 29-of-45 passes for 377 yards, four TDs and one INT for Jacksonville. His ANY/A stands at 9.16 for the season and 7.03 over his last two games.

The Jags also like to rely on their backfield. In addition to Keelan Cole (116 receiving yards, one receiving TD), T.J. Yeldon (58 rush yards, 13 receiving yards) and Dede Westbrook (-6 rush yards, 83 receiving yards, one TD) have seen a lot of touches lately.

NFL Prediction: Titans vs. Jaguars

SU Winner – Jaguars, ATS Winner – Titans, O/U – Over

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Notes

Betting Notes

Both offenses have produced one pass play of 30+ yards.

The Tennessee defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while Jacksonville has given up zero such plays.

Both teams have produced one rushing play of 20 yards or more. The Tennessee offense has recorded one running play of 10+ yards while Jacksonville has accounted for three such plays.

Both defenses have allowed one rushing play of 20 or more yards. The Titans have given up four running play of 10+ yards while the Jaguars have given up two such plays.

The Tennessee defense has five sacks on the year while Jacksonville has four.

Tennessee was the underdog by 3 points in its previous game and the O/U was 41. The under cashed and Tennessee covered in the 20-17 win over Houston.

Jacksonville was the underdog by 2 points in its last match and the Over/Under was set at 44.5. The over cashed and Jacksonville covered in the 31-20 win over New England.

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Written by GMS Previews

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