Luis Severino (1-7, 6.42 ERA) and the New York Yankees (60-56) go up against Jake Odorizzi (6-5, 3.69 ERA) and the Tampa Bay Rays (46-69) in the last of a three-game division series at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees won the last game 8-4, and New York leads the series 2-0. The game gets underway at 1:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 14 and will air on YES and SUN.
In his last start, Severino pitched 4.1 innings, allowing five runs and striking out three in a 5-3 loss to the Red Sox. Didi Gregorius (.289, 50 Rs, 15 HRs, 52 RBIs, 5 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and two RBIs. The Rays were unsuccessful against the Blue Jays 7-5 the last time Odorizzi pitched. He went 5.1 innings, giving up four runs (two unearned), striking out four and walking three. Brad Miller (.260, 54 Rs, 22 HRs, 52 RBIs, 6 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Rays, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two runs, two home runs, and four RBIs.
New York is a slight underdog (-102) and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. The Yankees have a losing record of 20-32 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of -49. They have not performed well against their division, earning a SU record of 18-24 and a 9-16 record when they were the underdog. The most recent 10-game stretch for the Yankees has gone great. Over that span, New York is averaging 5.8 runs per game, well over their season average of 4.2. Whenever an AL East opponent shows up on the calendar, the Yankees pitch better. They allow an average of 4.3 runs per game, but allow just 3.9 against teams from their own division. The Yankees are third in the AL in hits allowed with just 8.4 per game. They have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, leading the AL with 8.7 strikeouts per game.
On the other side, the Rays have a record of 27-36 when they are favored and are -2,953 overall with the money line. Against divisional rivals, they are 19-26 SU and 9-9 as the favorite.
The Yankees have mostly come out on top against the Rays in their previous 11 games this season, earning a 6-5 record. The Yankees will take on a right-hander (Odorizzi) in this game and have a 43-37 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Severino will take the mound against the Rays, who have a 34-53 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYY, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after seven innings, New York is 34-28, while Tampa Bay is 18-31.
The Rays are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Yankees have an 11-19 record when opponents give up one walk or less.
When they are outhit, the Rays are 10-52. The Yankees have a 12-45 record when opponents outhit them.
New York ranks near the bottom of the league when it comes to home runs, hitting 121 this season. Tampa Bay ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 149.
New York and Tampa Bay both rank in the top half of the league in hits. New York sits at 14th with 8.38 hits per game and Tampa Bay ranks 15th with 8.04.
New York and Tampa Bay both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. New York sits at 24th with an OPS of .710, and Tampa Bay ranks 21st with an OPS of .725.
When the Rays allow at least one home run, they are 24-62. When the Yankees allow one or more homers, they have a 36-45 record.
