The ATP’s Madrid tournament moves into the third round and so do our tennis picks. In Wednesday’s action, we saw a number of interesting results headlined by the fact that Stan Wawrinka lost to Nick Kyrgios. That was one of the headline matchups on Wednesday and it proved to be an entertaining affair. Kyrgios won in straight sets but he required tiebreakers in both sets to get the job done. In another upset – albeit more mild – we saw Gael Monfils fall to Pablo Cuevas. Monfils won the first set but failed to win any more after that as Cuevas advanced.
On Thursday, the favorites, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, should not be remotely troubled, so the much more interesting matches on the card can be found elsewhere. There are two matchups of top-15 players, and there’s another match featuring Nick Kyrgios, one of the rising stars in men’s tennis.
Tomas Berdych vs. David Ferrer
There is a weird reality at work in this match: Both Berdych and Ferrer have been in the top 10 for a long time. Both players have consistently occupied the No. 6 through No. 10 spots in men’s tennis, while Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, and Roger Federer have held down the top five positions in the rankings for much of the past 10 years. What’s weird is that while Berdych and Ferrer have made comfortable homes in the top 10, their careers are viewed very differently. Berdych is a player whose strong groundstrokes and booming serve made him a threat to win major tournaments for a long time, but he’s never done so, and he’s made a Grand Slam final only once, at Wimbledon in 2010. Berdych’s career is seen as a bit of a disappointment.
Ferrer, on the other hand, is a relatively short man without a huge serve who runs down balls and forces opponents to outhit him. They often don’t. They either pull the trigger early on shots or they simply lose focus in the midst of the strain to win points. Ferrer outlasts the competition with his hustle and determination. He has made the most of his career.
You might look at these players and conclude that since Ferrer has done more with his abilities, and since this is clay, Ferrer’s favorite surface, this match should go to the Spaniard. However, Ferrer has endured a tough year. Berdych could wobble in front of a hostile Madrid crowd which has never liked him – not since he told a crowd “shhhhh!” in Madrid several years ago – but he has the better, bigger game. Berdych made the Madrid final in 2012, so he knows how to play in this environment. David Ferrer has to play a very strong match just to stay in it. The odds point to Berdych as the winner, so take him with your tennis picks.
Pick: Berdych in straight sets
Nick Kyrgios vs. Pablo Cuevas
This should be a routine match. Cuevas defeated Gael Monfils, who was a threat to make the final of this tournament. Kyrgios is getting a much more favorable opponent, one who played a very long match the day before and will face a tough recovery process. If Cuevas was rested, this wouldn’t be an obvious pick. However, since Cuevas has to be dog-tired, Kyrgios should definitely get the nod. Take him with your tennis picks.
Pick: Kyrgios in straight sets
Richard Gasquet vs. Kei Nishikori
This is a matchup in which Nishikori’s two-handed backhand goes up against Gasquet’s one-handed backhand. Generally, the two-hander gives a player more control and the ability to set up shots with less time. Nishikori should be able to take time away from Gasquet and make him feel less comfortable as the match goes on. Gasquet could easily win if Nishikori’s not on his game, but Nishikori does well on clay, and is a former Madrid finalist, so he deserves to be seen as the superior betting choice. Go with her with your tennis picks in this spot.
Pick: Nishikori in straight sets
