The ATP’s Internazionali BNL d-Italia tournament proceeds into the third round in Rome and so do our tennis picks. We had a productive day with our tennis picks on Wednesday as we went 2-1 on the men’s side of things. Our lone loss of the day was Jeremy Chardy, who topped Roberto Bautista in straight sets. Bautista forced him into a tiebreaker in the first set but he eventually lost it, and then lost the second set 6-4. While that loss cost us, we still won with David Ferrer, who beat Guillermo Garcia in straight sets. We also cashed with Rafael Nadal, who rolled through Philipp Kohlschreiber in straight sets. There weren’t too many surprises on Wednesday as Milos Raonic was the biggest name to go down, but he lost to a hot Nick Kyrgios.
As is consistent with the schedule in the round of 16 at a Masters 1000 tournament, you’re sure to find some attractive matchups on the card, and two of the three below are real headline grabbers.
Roger Federer vs. Dominic Thiem
There is a constant concern about Roger Federer’s health, and it doesn’t just come from the outside world; it comes from Federer himself. Federer told the assembled press in Rome that he was not sure exactly how he felt on Wednesday in his first match of the tournament. He didn’t know what his body would be able to do. He played a cautious, probing match against Alexander Zverev, not trying to bend too much or overtax his body. He was not optimistic about his chances of being able to play at a high level. However, he got through the match cleanly enough. He won, and he won in straight sets. The victory sets up a third-round match with Dominic Thiem, who played extremely well in February and has accumulated a lot of match wins this season. However, Thiem has played a lot of tournaments, and because of his desire to play just about every single week with very little down time, he hasn’t been able to win as consistently. His rate of effectiveness has certainly tailed off.
However, Thiem lost early in Madrid last week, in a tournament which followed a march to the final in Munich a few days earlier. Thiem had virtually no time between the Munich final and the first match in Madrid. Because he lost early in Madrid, however, he has had plenty of time to regroup for Rome, and a pair of match wins suggest that the rest did him a world of good, which is entirely unsurprising. Federer doesn’t deserve to be written off, but his body just might not be ready for Thiem’s hard groundstrokes. This feels like a match in which Federer will be worn down. He will probably need to win in straight sets. A three-setter would work in Thiem’s favor. Go with the upset with your tennis picks here.
Pick: Thiem in three sets
Novak Djokovic vs. Thomaz Bellucci
This should be a routine match for Djokovic, but one point of concern is that he did not look very comfortable in his first match on Wednesday against Stephane Robert. This could have been just a blip, but it bears watching. Anyway, Djokovic should be the favorite against Bellucci, a player who has not been able to live up to his level of talent. Take Djokovic in straights, but be prepared for the sight of Djokovic physically struggling. Take Djokovic with your tennis picks.
Pick: Djokovic in straight sets
Richard Gasquet vs. Kei Nishikori
This is a matchup in which these two players should not have to worry about a scouting report. They met last week in the round of 16 in Madrid, and Nishikori won. There’s no big reason to favor Gasquet this time, except for the possibility that Nishikori might be tired after making the Madrid semifinals last week. That’s not convincing enough of a reason, however. Nishikori is simply the better clay-court player. Take Nishikori with your tennis picks here.
Pick: Nishikori in three sets
