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Tennis Picks: ATP Wimbledon First Round

Wimbledon, the oldest tournament of significance in the sport of tennis, has played one day in the first round. Tuesday, the other half of the first round is played, in addition to a match suspended by darkness at 11-11 in the fifth set between Santiago Giraldo and Gilles Muller. That’s where we’ll start our tennis picks. There were no huge surprises on day one of the tournament. We saw players like Marin Cilic, Gilles Simon, Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer, David Goffin, Roger Federer and Kei Nishikori advance. We did see Gael Monfils and Philipp Kohlschreiber bow out, although neither of those players was really pegged to win this tournament.

Will there be any shocks on day two? Here is a look at our tennis picks.

Dominic Thiem vs. Florian Mayer

There is always a sense of disbelief for players who meet late in one tournament just before a Grand Slam event, and then watch as their names are put together in the first round of the draw for that Grand Slam tournament. Such is the case with Thiem, the number eight seed, and the veteran Mayer from Germany. Thiem and Mayer played in the semifinals of the Gerry Weber Open in Germany just over a full week ago. Thiem got a walkover on the previous day in the quarterfinals, and since it’s well known that he has played too much tennis this year, playing a lot of lower-level events and barely taking a week off, many felt that he would benefit from the day of rest. Instead, Thiem was flat. His feet did not move the way they were supposed to move. His body was sluggish, and his game simply didn’t come up to Mayer’s standard. Mayer is a savvy veteran who doesn’t hit hard. He chips and chops the ball around the court and doesn’t feed pace to a young hitter who wants to crush every ball, and this is something Thiem didn’t adjust to in the Gerry Weber Open. Mayer won to advance to the final, which he then won over Alexander Zverev.

In this rematch, just a week and a half later, Thiem’s experience against Mayer should enable him to read his opponent’s serve, and once Thiem can make inroads on that serve, he should begin to feel more comfortable from the baseline. He can attack Mayer and rush the German, creating the kind of match he wants. This is not an easy draw at all, but Thiem probably has enough to get by Mayer and show that he’s continuing to learn and grow in the lion’s den of men’s tennis. Take Thiem with your tennis picks in this particular spot.

Pick: Thiem in four sets

John Isner vs. Marcos Baghdatis

This should be a match with a lot of quick points. Isner is a huge server and Baghdatis is a player who loves to make the complicated shot instead of the simple shot. The idea that points should be short points to Isner, who can get tangled on his footwork and watch his shots break down when he’s extended by an opponent. Baghdatis probably isn’t quite disciplined to handle Isner’s pure power. This is not an easy match to call, but Isner deserves the edge. We also like the fact that Isner has been playing well through the early part of the grass season. He has won three of his four matches on the surface, so that’s one more reason we’re going with him for our tennis picks.

Pick: Isner in four sets

Horacio Zeballos vs. Mikhail Youzhny

This is a matchup in which Zeballos is a South American who is comfortable on clay, and Youzhny is a former Wimbledon quarterfinalist who is a solid – not legendary, but solid – player on clay. He’s a veteran of the ATP Tour that’s seen it all, for the most part. One guy is at home in these surroundings, and the other isn’t. The choice for Youzhny is not very complex in the end. He’s the man we’re going with for our tennis picks.

Pick: Youzhny in straight sets

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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