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Tennis Picks: WTA Wimbledon Semifinals

The Wimbledon tennis tournament is down to four women’s singles players who will compete on Thursday afternoon in suburban London. That’s where we’ll pick up our tennis picks.

Looking back to the last round, we saw four matches on Tuesday that were all straight sets results. Angelique Kerber continued her strong showings in grand slams this year by beating Simona Halep to reach the semifinals. As you might recall, she won the 2016 Australian Open. We also saw Elena Vesnina qualify for the semis with a win over Dominika Cibulkova. The latter won just four games in total. For either player, this is a great result to get this far. Aside from these two, we saw the Williams sisters advance. The bigger surprise is Venus, who beat Yaroslava Shvedova 7-6, 6-2 to move. Venus has had a rough season but has got it together for Wimbledon. As for Serena Williams, this should be a breeze for her to the trophy. She thumped Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-4, 6-4 to move on.

Look ahead to Thursday, Venus Williams is the oldest Wimbledon women’s singles semifinalist since Martina Navratilova in 1994. Navratilova won her semifinal and made the final against Conchita Martinez. Can Venus beat Angelique Kerber in the day’s marquee matchup? If she can, we could see another all-Williams final at the All-England Club. Here is a look at our tennis picks for Thursday.

Serena Williams vs. Elena Vesnina

This is a match which Serena should easily win. Vesnina is ranked 50th in the world. This is her first appearance in a Grand Slam singles semifinal. She has historically been good enough to win one or two matches at a Grand Slam event, but not the five matches she has won at Wimbledon this year. Vesnina is still alive in women’s doubles and mixed doubles. The good news is that she has gotten a lot of practice and work on her net play. The bad news is that she’s been playing a ton of tennis. Vesnina did play extremely well in her quarterfinal win over Dominika Cibulkova, but Cibulkova was coming off a very physical and exhausting three-hour match against Agnieszka Radwanska. That match was decided by a 9-7 third set, so the match was long to begin with. However, that’s not the whole story. The match involved long and grueling rallies which left both players spent. Cibulkova just didn’t have enough left in terms of energy to give Vesnina the toughest possible match.

Serena is a different level of opponent for Vesnina. She is so close to a 22nd major title that she can taste it. She also knows that she’s lost in major finals this year to players who had never previously won a Grand Slam championship. For this and other related reasons, she won’t ignore Vesnina or the threat she poses. Serena should be focused, and as long as she’s focused, she should be able to do what needs to be done to win. Take her with your tennis picks.

Pick: Serena in straight sets

Venus Williams vs. Angelique Kerber

This is a terrific matchup. Venus likes to lean into her groundstrokes and deliver the first blow in a rally. Kerber is capable of that, but she’s an astoundingly good defensive player who can hit winners from the corners of the court and outside the doubles alleys. Venus has to be patient in this match, not just in terms of putting herself in winning positions on points, but in terms of expecting to hit three or four extra shots to win points in the face of Kerber’s defense. Venus, when she approaches the net, has to be able to hit a few tough volleys from difficult angles, because Kerber is going to require that of Venus. It’s true that Venus has a better serve than Kerber, and that playing quicker points is an advantage for Williams. However, Kerber’s defense is generally good enough to extend points on grass, eventually wearing down Venus in a prolonged struggle.

Venus has a great chance, but Kerber is more likely to win, so take her with your tennis picks.

Pick: Kerber in three sets

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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