The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a lopsided 41-10 win over the New York Jets that kept their playoff hopes alive at 6-6. Now they will try to build on that victory in an absolutely crucial AFC South showdown with the division-leading Houston Texans this week. Even though both teams have been feeble this season, they’re still tied for first place in the AFC South – along with the Tennessee Titans – and are vying for playoff position. The winner of this game will have the inside track.
Moneyline: IND -255
Handicap/Spread Odds: Indianapolis -6
Total O/U: 47
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 10/16/16 | IND 23 – HOU 26 | PUSH -3.0 | U 47.5 |
| 12/20/15 | HOU 16 – IND 10 | HOU 2.5 | U 42 |
| 10/08/15 | IN 27 – HOU 20 | IND 5 | O 40.5 |
| 12/14/14 | HOU 10 – IND 17 | PUSH – 7.0 | U 49 |
| 10/09/14 | IND 33 – HOU 28 | IND -2.5 | O 46 |
On The Texans Side of the Ball (6-6 Record, 5-6-1 ATS)
Houston is coming off three straight losses including a 21-13 defeat on the road at the Green Bay Packers last week but still controls its own destiny in the AFC South with four games to go. There is no doubt that this week’s showdown is a must-win as the Texans can move one game up on Indianapolis with three games to go while securing the tiebreak between them. Houston will have to solve its offensive struggles after scoring just three touchdowns in its last two games. It begins with quarterback Brock Osweiler, who has struggled mightily this season. Osweiler was held to 202 yards on 22-of-35 passing against a Green Bay defense that hasn’t exactly been dominant this season and he needs to be more consistent this week against Indianapolis. The team looks like they’ve lost confidence in him, which is a big problem.
Meanwhile, the Texans’ defense will have its hands full against Andrew Luck and a Colts offense that put up 41 points in a win over the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. The defense has kept Houston in each of its last three games but will need a dominant performance on the road in order to avoid dropping its fourth loss in a row. Keep an eye on the status of start cornerback Johnathan Joseph, who cracked two ribs last week and will be questionable for Sunday’s game.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/04/16 | @ GB | L 13-21 | L 6.5 | U 44.5 |
| 11/27/16 | SD | L 13-21 | L 2.5 | U 45.5 |
| 11/21/16 | @ OAK | L 20-27 | L 6.5 | O 45.5 |
| 11/13/16 | @ JAC | W 24-21 | W 3 | O 42 |
| 10/30/16 | DET | W 20-13 | W -1 | U 46.5 |
On The Colts Side of the Ball (6-6 Record; 6-5-1 ATS)
Indianapolis has been trending in the opposite direction overall of late with wins in three of its last four including last week’s 41-10 humiliation of the Jets. Luck threw for 278 yards and four touchdowns in the win and he should be locked in with a chance to move in to sole possession of first place in the AFC South this week with another strong performance. Meanwhile, the Colts defense is coming off a strong performance as well after forcing three interceptions against Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bryce Petty on Monday Night Football. If the Indianapolis defense can force Osweiler in to making mistakes then it will go a long way towards getting another big win at home.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/05/16 | @ NYJ | W 41-10 | W 1 | O 48.5 |
| 11/24/16 | PIT | L 7-28 | L 8 | U 50 |
| 11/20/16 | TEN | W 24-17 | W -3 | U 53.5 |
| 11/06/16 | @ GB | W 31-26 | W 7.5 | O 52 |
| 10/30/16 | KC | L 14-30 | L 3 | U 50.5 |
Quick Analysis
Houston has dropped three in a row while failing to cover in all three and it won’t get any easier this week as they are on the road for the fourth time in five weeks. Meanwhile, the Colts have won and covered in each of their last three games with Luck under center so they have to feel confident now that their star quarterback is healthy heading in to this week.
Prediction
Six points is a lot for a crucial division showdown but it’s right in line with the Texans recent margins as they have dropped three in a row with each loss decided by exactly seven points. The Colts are playing their best football at the right time and with a healthy Luck, they are clearly the favorite to emerge in the AFC South. Indianapolis controls its own destiny heading in to this week’s game and it won’t be a surprise to anybody when they win and cover at home in Week 14.
Pick: Indianapolis -6
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
Click here to make your NFL picks count this weekend by betting at Diamond Sportsbook!
