The Houston Texans have locked up the AFC South and are now heading back to the playoffs. This Week 17 divisional affair could have meant much more had the Tennessee Titans not laid an egg last week. The Titans controlled their own destiny, but fell in ugly fashion to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Compounding their problems was the loss of franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota, who broke his leg. As a result, we now have a matchup where Matt Cassel will be leading the Titans.
The Texans have their playoff position locked up, so it’s very possible that they rest many of their starters too. That’s why we have a situation where Titans team with nothing to play with (that’s led by a backup quarterback) is favored at home against the division elader.
Moneyline: Titans -160
Handicap/Spread Odds: Titans -3
Total O/U: 40
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 10/2/2016 | TEN 20 – HOU 27 | HOU -4 | O 40 |
| 12/27/2015 | HOU 34 – TEN 6 | HOU -3.5 | O 39 |
| 11/1/2015 | TEN 6 – HOU 20 | HOU -3.5 | U 43 |
| 11/30/2014 | TEN 21 – HOU 45 | HOU -7 | O 43 |
| 10/26/2014 | HOU 30 – TEN 16 | HOU -3.5 | O 43 |
On The Texans Side of the Ball (9-6 Record, 6-8-1 ATS)
The Houston Texans are coming off a win on Saturday but it was by the narrowest of margins. The Cincinnati Bengals had a makeable game-winning field goal but blew it. The Bengals have had field goal kicking problems all season long and they cropped up again. For all intents and purposes, the Texans probably should have lost that game.
Instead, the Texans have now won two straight since Tom Savage took over the starting quarterback duties, but it might not necessarily be a good thing. He has had so-so showings in both contests and had the Texans not survived in overtime against the Jacksonville Jaguars or had they lost to the Bengals, there would be far more debate about his performance.
The good news is that the Texans defense has been functioning fairly well all season long. They should get a freebie this week as they face a Titans team that is missing their best offensive weapon. Tennessee doesn’t exactly have a strong home-field advantage (just 4-3 at home this year), so this might be a stop to bet against them since they’re laying points.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/24/2016 | CIN | W 12-10 | L -3 | U 41.5 |
| 12/18/2016 | JAC | W 21-20 | L -3.5 | O 39.5 |
| 12/11/2016 | @IND | W 22-17 | W 6.5 | U 47.5 |
| 12/4/2016 | @GB | L 13-21 | L 6.5 | U 44.5 |
| 11/27/2016 | SD | L 13-21 | L 2.5 | U 45.5 |
On The Titans Side of the Ball (5-9-1 Record, 5-9-1 ATS)
The Titans are a young team on the rise, but it looks like their positive season has come to an end. They have made a lot of progress this year – specifically, quarterback Marcus Mariota – but the franchise is in a state of shock right now. Last week, they were within arm’s reach of being one of the surprise playoff contestants. This week, they’re realizing that Mariota has a long road ahead of him in terms of recover and that the team will have to start looking towards next year.
This is a tough spot for them with Cassel leading the way. He’s just a veteran game manager at this point in his career, which means the Titans will have to get a great game out of their rushing attack and their defense to solidify a win.
Last 5 Results:
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Quick Analysis
The Titans had a lot of momentum heading into last week and it looked like they had a clear opportunity to win out. They had won three straight games while covering two of those contests. Now it’s hard to handicap the numbers or rely on the previous ones as their MVP quarterback is out for the season. As for the Texans, they’ve been terrible against the spread of late. They have failed to cover two straight and five of their last six. Their defense typically shows up for their games but their quarterbacks are spotty. That means they’re a pick-six away from blowing any spread on any given day.
Prediction
This is one of the more challenging games to handicap for Week 17. On one hand, you have a Houston Texans squad that hasn’t been particularly strong against the spread when they have been giving a full effort. Now they have their backups in as they try to head to the playoffs healthy but with a little bit of momentum. For the Titans, this is a letdown spot as they were supposed to have everything on the line in this game but instead, now have nothing to play for and are without their heart and soul leader. It’s a bit of a toss-up but go with the Texans in this spot. It’s hard to lay points with a Mariota-less Titans squad.
Pick: Texans +3
Note: The betting odds are subject to change throughout the week leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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